Nel ASA: Insider Bet Signals Confidence as Orders Diverge From Share Price

Nel ASA stock surges 66% to a 52-week high, but Q1 revenue drops, orders collapse 73%, and analysts remain cautious with no buy ratings.

The Norwegian electrolyser specialist Nel ASA has hit a 52-week high of 0.32 euros, yet the disconnect between its market performance and underlying business metrics has rarely been starker. While the stock has surged roughly 66 percent over the past year, the company’s order intake has collapsed — and not a single analyst covering the stock currently recommends buying it.

A Rally Without a Catalyst

Nel’s shares climbed around 6.7 percent on May 5, reaching a new 52-week peak. The move lacked a company-specific trigger. Instead, the momentum came from a broader reassessment of the hydrogen sector, with institutional investors rotating back into the space as macroeconomic conditions stabilise and large-scale project tenders multiply.

The same day, Oman issued a tender for a hydrogen-capable power plant with a capacity of 800 MW to 1 GW. Shell is nearing the start of its “Holland Hydrogen 1” project in the port of Rotterdam — a 200 MW facility designed to produce 60,000 kilograms of green hydrogen daily for industrial use. Progress at the Arequipa Hydrogen Hub in Peru and a new partnership in South Korea to advance hydrogen infrastructure added to the sector’s positive sentiment.

For equipment makers like Nel, these developments represent the pipeline that will eventually translate into orders. Whether that conversion materialises remains the central question.

The Numbers Behind the Rally

Nel’s first-quarter results for 2026 explain the analysts’ caution. Revenue fell to 152 million Norwegian kroner from 175 million a year earlier. EBITDA remained deeply negative at minus 100 million kroner, though that was 15 million kroner better than the prior-year period. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner from 179 million.

Structural improvements are visible: personnel costs dropped 21 percent, and the alkaline segment improved its EBITDA by 35 million kroner. But the real trouble lies in the order book. New orders plunged 73 percent to just 85 million kroner, while the order backlog shrank 24 percent to 1.11 billion kroner. Nel has cut roughly a quarter of its workforce and holds a liquidity reserve of about 1.4 billion kroner — enough to fund operations through 2026, but no substitute for missing revenue.

Berenberg analyst James Carmichael maintained his neutral rating but cut his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner. Citigroup followed, lowering its target from 2.70 to 2.40 kroner. Both firms cited ongoing uncertainty around commercial scaling. The consensus analyst price target stands at 2.14 kroner — well below the current trading level.

PEM Division Offers a Glimmer

While the alkaline business dominates headlines, Nel’s PEM division is quietly building momentum. Nel Hydrogen US secured an order worth roughly $7 million for PEM electrolyser equipment, to be deployed at the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state. The system will use surplus energy from a hydropower project for hydrogen production, relieving turbine strain. The facility is expected to be operational in the first half of 2027.

Longer term, Nel is developing a new PEM platform designed to reduce stack costs by 70 percent. A prototype is planned for this year, with a potential market launch in 2028 or 2029. CEO Håkon Volldal expressed cautious optimism for the current quarter: “The first quarter was rather quiet in terms of order intake, but the PEM division has picked up speed — with a good order in Q2 and high expectations for a few more by mid-year.”

Insider Buying Sends a Signal

A notable development came in late April when chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 Nel shares at an average price of 2.2547 kroner — two days after the weak Q1 numbers were published, when the stock had fallen to 2.20 kroner. Insider purchases at such levels are rare and are typically interpreted by market observers as a vote of confidence.

Technically, the stock has left its long-term averages far behind. The 200-day moving average sits at around 0.20 euros, with the current price roughly 57 percent above that level. Since hitting a 52-week low of 0.18 euros in early March, the shares have nearly doubled. The relative strength index of 31 suggests the rally has not yet entered overbought territory.

The Next Test

Nel’s Q2 results, due in July, will provide the next hard test of whether the order intake is genuinely recovering — or whether the share price continues to run ahead of commercial reality. For now, the stock is pricing in a turnaround that the order book has yet to confirm.