Nel ASA Hits 52-Week High on 5 GW German Demand Forecast, But Order Book Tells a Different Story

Nel ASA shares surged 14% to a new 52-week high as hydrogen sector optimism grows, but Q1 orders plunged 73% and analysts rate the stock a sell with a price target far below current levels.

Nel ASA’s stock surged nearly 14% on Friday to close at €0.33, touching a new 52-week high and extending its recovery to 83% above the March trough of €0.18. The rally came without any company-specific catalyst, instead riding a wave of renewed optimism across the hydrogen sector — anchored by a single, striking forecast. Nils Aldag, CEO of rival electrolyser maker Sunfire, projected that Germany would need 5 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity over the next five years. That compares with just 185 MW currently installed in the country and puts the national target of 10 GW by 2030 within striking distance.

The new alkaline electrolyser system Nel launched after more than eight years of development lies at the heart of its turnaround narrative. The company claims turnkey costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25 MW plant — 40% to 60% less than conventional systems — and has already lined up up to €135 million in support from the EU Innovation Fund. Industrialisation at its Herøya site could reach 1 GW of annual capacity. On the technology front, Nel appears well-positioned to capture a slice of that projected German demand.

Yet the commercial picture remains sharply at odds with the share price momentum. First-quarter order intake plunged 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, underscoring a widening gap between product readiness and customer conviction. Management points to a growing pipeline for 2027 and 2028, with defence and security applications as emerging demand drivers, but the credibility of that recovery thesis hinges entirely on converting pipeline into purchase orders. The analyst consensus is unsparing: none of the surveyed analysts rate the stock a buy, seven recommend selling, and the average price target of 2.12 Norwegian kroner — roughly €0.19 — sits well below the current level.

The broader industry context explains some of the hesitation. Green hydrogen production still costs roughly ten times as much as natural gas, and high electricity prices coupled with regulatory bottlenecks have kept project economics marginal. Without sustained subsidy support and infrastructure buildout, the 5 GW forecast — however ambitious — remains aspirational. Meanwhile, the recent sector-wide rally has been fuelled in part by short-covering and a general rotation into oversold clean-energy names, not by a sudden flood of confirmed contracts.

For Nel, the next few weeks will test whether the mood shift can translate into real revenue. The technology has taken a meaningful leap forward; the order book has not. The stock is pricing in a future that the fundamentals have yet to deliver, and the market is now waiting for evidence that European governments are serious enough about hydrogen to turn forecasts into firm orders.