Nel ASA: Data Centre Demand and Cost-Cutting Platform Drive 52-Week High, But Earnings Remain Under Pressure

Nel ASA stock surges 14% to EUR 0.33, doubling from March trough, buoyed by Bloom Energy deal and new alkaline electrolyser platform, but analysts remain cautious amid persistent losses.

The Norwegian hydrogen technology company Nel ASA closed Friday at EUR 0.33, marking a new 52-week high and a daily gain of almost 14%. The rally has more than doubled the stock from its March trough of EUR 0.18, but the underlying financial picture remains far less rosy. Two contrasting forces are at play: a sector-wide boost from data centre demand and a fresh cost breakthrough on the technology side, set against persistent operating losses and cautious analyst ratings.

Bloom Energy deal lights a fuse under hydrogen stocks

The immediate catalyst for Friday's surge came from across the Atlantic. Bloom Energy announced a 328-megawatt fuel cell supply agreement with AI provider Nebius, with the first project scheduled to start up in 2026. The deal has reignited the thesis that AI-driven data centres will need reliable, decentralised power sources — opening the door for hydrogen-adjacent fuel cells to play a bigger role in peak-load management and decarbonisation.

The ripple effect was immediate. Plug Power also jumped more than 14% on Friday after making a final investment decision on its Barrow Green Hydrogen project in the UK. That facility will use six PEM electrolysers with a combined capacity of 30 megawatts, moving the sector beyond mere announcements into tangible execution.

For Nel, the improved sector sentiment translates into a stock that has now gained 62.38% over the past month and 71.10% year-to-date. Yet the three-year view remains punishing: a decline of 78.07% underscores just how deep the valuation hole had become.

New alkaline platform targets sub-$1,450/kW

The company’s own technological news has provided a more fundamental driver. In early May, Nel commercially launched a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform after eight years of development. The headline cost target is below USD 1,450 per kilowatt for a turnkey 25-megawatt plant — a concrete pricing advantage that management is now trying to monetise.

That platform debut was followed in April by two PEM orders worth USD 7 million each: one from a US public utility, the other for a European project. Total order backlog stood at NOK 1.113 billion at the end of the first quarter. Whether these wins can be scaled into a sustained flow of larger contracts will determine the stock’s next leg.

Chairman puts his money where his mouth is

Despite the technology progress, Bay Street remains unconvinced. RBC Capital Markets reaffirmed a “Neutral” rating in late April, and Berenberg sticks with “Hold.” The consensus price target of around NOK 2.12 sits well below the current Oslo listing of NOK 3.22.

A stark contrast comes from inside the company. Chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 shares at an average price of NOK 2.25 shortly after the Q1 numbers were released — a clear vote of confidence. Yet the analyst community wants to see more than insider buying before upgrading the stock.

Earnings tell a tougher story

Nel reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately NOK 148 million, a 5% decline year-over-year. EBITDA came in at negative NOK 100 million, though that was a NOK 15 million improvement on the prior-year period. The full-year 2025 result was dragged down by impairment charges of NOK 799 million, mainly on production assets at the Herøya site.

The stock now trades 59.75% above its 200-day moving average of EUR 0.21. While that signals strong momentum, it also creates vulnerability to any disappointment on the order or cost front. As one chart watcher put it, the rally has made the equity cheap relative to recent lows but expensive relative to actual earnings power.

Maritime research adds long-term ballast

On the application side, a less immediate but structurally relevant development took place in Flensburg on May 20. The keel was laid for MODULARIS, a 48-metre floating laboratory designed for real-world maritime testing. The German Aerospace Centre (DLR) will use the platform to trial hydrogen-based ship propulsion, fuel cells, and alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia.

This is no near-term revenue driver for Nel, but it broadens the testing ecosystem for hydrogen technology. The outcomes of such trials will ultimately shape cost curves and market size — factors that matter for an electrolyser maker still waiting for volume orders to match the stock’s recent trajectory.

The next real test will be whether the improved sector mood translates into binding electrolyser contracts and lower manufacturing costs. Bloom and Nebius aim to bring their first project online in 2026; Plug has already unlocked Barrow. For Nel, the window is open — but the earnings gap is wide.