Nel ASA: CEO Departure and Orders Collapse Leave Shareholders Scrambling for Support at 200-Day Line

Nel ASA shares plunged 32% in 30 days as CEO Håkon Volldal departs, Q1 orders dropped 73%, and cash burn persists. Technical battle at 200-day moving average.

Nel ASA’s shares ended last week at €0.21, nudging up modestly on Friday to post a gain of nearly 5% for the week. That small reprieve, however, does little to mask a far more painful reality: over the past 30 days, the stock has shed roughly 32% of its value. The deeper picture is one of extreme volatility — the annualised figure hits 67% — and a market psychology so fractured that the entire year’s price band has been traversed twice in just three months. The current level sits about 20% below the 50-day moving average but clings almost exactly to the 200-day line, a zone that has become the defining technical battlefront.

Compounding the price action is a sudden leadership vacuum. Håkon Volldal, the chief executive who has steered Nel through a turbulent period, is leaving the company by early 2027 to take the helm at packaging group Elopak. The board is now hunting for a successor in what analysts describe as a critical juncture. Berenberg’s James Carmichael recently trimmed his price target and maintained a neutral rating; not a single sell-side expert currently recommends buying the stock.

The fundamental backdrop makes the timing of the CEO exit particularly acute. Nel’s first-quarter order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog shrank to 1.1 billion kroner. Against that, the company holds more than 1.4 billion kroner in cash — a buffer that is steadily eroded by ongoing operating losses of 100 million kroner per quarter. Management has openly acknowledged that current capacity utilisation is insufficient to fill the production schedule for 2027, putting the spotlight squarely on the pace of new contract wins.

To stem the cash burn, Nel has pivoted aggressively toward smaller, containerised PEM electrolyser units that can be delivered in under 12 months. That strategy showed early signs of traction in the second quarter: a repeat order worth $7 million in April, followed by another contract valued at around 70 million kroner. The company has also slashed headcount by 26% from its peak, driving down personnel costs. Optimists see these moves as a bridge to better times, arguing that customers increasingly prefer modular, staged investments over giant upfront commitments.

Yet pessimists counter that small deals are a drop in the ocean given the scale of the order gap. The structural weakness in the commercial pipeline is underscored by the fact that Nel remains heavily dependent on public subsidies. Up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund has been earmarked for the next-generation electrolyser platform, with an initial tranche of €10 million expected in the second quarter of 2026. Separately, a grant of roughly €11 million for the company’s pressurised alkaline technology is slated to arrive in the spring of 2026. While welcome, these inflows are still years away and do little to address immediate cash needs.

The stock’s technical posture reflects the stand-off between hope and reality. The relative strength index sits at 38.8 — below the neutral 50 threshold but not deep enough in oversold territory to suggest an imminent bounce. A decisive break above the 50-day moving average at €0.27 would flash a clear buy signal, whereas a slide beneath the 52-week low of €0.17 would open the door to further downside. For now, the €0.21 level, coinciding with the 200-day line, is acting as make-or-break support. If it holds, a base for stabilisation could form; if it fails, the next leg lower may accelerate.

All eyes are now on Nel’s half-year results, expected around July 15. Investors will scrutinise order momentum, the trajectory of cash reserves, and — perhaps most critically — any update on the search for a new chief executive. Until those numbers land, the shares remain trapped between a long-term narrative of clean hydrogen and a very near-term fight for survival.