Nel ASA: A Technology Leap That Can't Mask the Order Book Bleed

Nel ASA unveils a next-gen electrolyser slashing costs by 60% with €135M EU backing, but order intake plummets 73% and analyst ratings stay neutral, keeping the stock near €0.26.

Nel ASA finds itself in an uncomfortable spot. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist has unveiled a next-generation electrolyser platform that could slash customer costs by as much as 60%, and the European Union has pledged up to €135 million to scale production. Yet the market is selling first and asking questions later. The stock closed Friday at €0.26, roughly 17% below its 52-week high of €0.32, even as it still clings to a 36% year-to-date gain.

The Cost-Cutting Breakthrough

After years in development, Nel has launched its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform. For a 25-megawatt installation, the company now quotes turnkey costs of under $1,450 per kilowatt — a price point that management believes can unlock larger-scale green hydrogen projects. The EU’s Innovation Fund is backing the industrialisation push with grants of up to €135 million, with the first double-digit million-euro tranche expected in the second quarter of 2026. The ultimate goal: a production capacity of one gigawatt per year at its Herøya facility in Norway.

The Order Book Wipeout

But the technology story collides with a grim commercial reality. Nel’s order intake has collapsed by 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog has shrunk by nearly a quarter. Analysts have taken note. James Carmichael at Berenberg maintains a “Neutral” rating but has slashed his price target to 2.30 kroner, pointing explicitly to the persistently weak order flow. Not a single analyst currently recommends buying the stock.

Insider Buying Meets Market Skepticism

Board chair Arvid Moss has tried to signal confidence by purchasing 100,000 shares at an average price of around 2.25 kroner. That insider buy has done little to stem the selling pressure. The stock’s relative strength index now sits near 36, edging into oversold territory, but momentum remains firmly negative.

European Infrastructure Takes Shape

On the macro front, Europe’s hydrogen pipeline network is slowly materialising. The BarMar project — a 400-kilometre pipeline linking Barcelona to Fos-sur-Mer in southern France — is currently open for public consultation. Once operational, it will carry large volumes of green hydrogen across the continent, potentially feeding demand for Nel’s electrolysers.

The Hidden Risk in Herøya

Back at home, Nel faces a potential accounting headache. Two older production lines for atmospheric electrolysers at Herøya have been idled, and the company is now reviewing their book values. That review could trigger impairment charges, adding a financial sting to the operational transition.

Cash Reserves Offer a Cushion

Nel’s balance sheet provides some breathing room. The company holds around 1.4 billion Norwegian kroner in cash, which management says will fund operations through year-end. No near-term plans to tap equity markets have been announced.

The July 15 Reckoning

All eyes now turn to July 15, 2026, when Nel reports its half-year results. CEO Jon André Løkke is currently negotiating projects in Europe and North America, with potential deals ranging from 50 to 150 megawatts. The market will want to see those discussions convert into binding contracts — not just technological promise.