Nel ASA: A 44% Rally Built on Hope, While the Order Book Tells a Harsher Story

Nel ASA shares hit a 52-week high despite a 73% order intake collapse. All eyes on the May 6 alkaline electrolyser launch as a make-or-break moment.

The hydrogen sector has been riding a wave of euphoria since Bloom Energy’s blockbuster earnings late April, and Nel ASA has been a prime beneficiary. The Norwegian electrolyser maker’s shares hit a fresh 52-week high of 0.28 euros last week, extending a year-to-date gain of roughly 44 percent. But beneath the surface, the company’s first-quarter numbers paint a far more sobering picture — one that makes the upcoming May 6 technology launch a genuine inflection point.

The Numbers That Don’t Lie

Nel’s Q1 2026 results, released in late April, showed customer revenues of 148 million Norwegian kroner — a 5 percent decline year-on-year. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner from 179 million a year earlier, and the EBITDA deficit improved by 15 million kroner to minus 100 million. Those are incremental steps in the right direction, but they remain deeply in the red.

The most alarming figure, however, was the order intake. It collapsed by 73 percent to just 85 million kroner, while the order backlog shrank 24 percent to 1.11 billion kroner. The company has responded by cutting its workforce by roughly a quarter, and it now sits on a liquidity cushion of around 1.4 billion kroner — a buffer that buys time but doesn’t solve the underlying revenue problem.

Berenberg, which downgraded its price target in March from 2.60 to 2.30 Norwegian kroner, maintained its rating. The analyst consensus currently sits at around 2.22 kroner, though the range is wide — from 1.20 to 4.20 kroner — reflecting deep uncertainty about Nel’s trajectory.

The May 6 Pivot

Against this backdrop, Nel’s management is pinning its hopes on a new technology platform set to be unveiled on Wednesday, May 6. The product is a pressure-based alkaline electrolyser system, which CEO Håkon Volldal has called a “milestone for the entire electrolyser segment.”

The promises are bold. The new platform is expected to cut capital expenditure costs by 40 to 60 percent and reduce operating expenses by 10 to 20 percent. Nel has already secured up to 135 million euros in EU funding — roughly 60 percent of eligible costs — to scale the technology, with larger deliveries targeted for 2027.

But there’s a catch. Two existing production lines at Nel’s Herøya facility are currently idle, and the launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those older assets. The market is effectively pricing in a successful transition — but execution risk remains high.

Defence Pivot and a $7 Million Order

Nel is also trying to tap new demand channels. Volldal has emphasised hydrogen’s role in energy security and decentralised power, particularly for defence-related applications. After the quarter closed, the company’s PEM division secured a $7 million follow-on order for container-based electrolysers, destined for European hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial customers, with deliveries expected from 2027.

The broader sector tailwind from Bloom Energy’s record quarter — which saw a 130 percent revenue surge and a strategic partnership with Oracle for AI data centres — has lifted all boats. Nel’s shares gained 7.3 percent in Oslo to 2.35 Norwegian kroner on the day of Bloom’s release, and they remain roughly 25 percent above their level 30 days ago.

What Happens Next

The market is now betting that Nel’s new platform will transform its fortunes. But the company’s current financials offer little room for error. With revenues shrinking, orders collapsing, and losses persisting, the May 6 reveal will need to be nothing short of transformative to justify the rally.

The next hard reality check comes on July 15, when Nel reports its half-year results. Until then, the stock is trading on narrative — and the narrative hinges entirely on whether the new alkaline platform can deliver on its cost promises. If it does, the 44 percent rally may prove to be just the beginning. If it doesn’t, the stock has a long way to fall.