Nebius: The $27 Billion Meta Deal That Can't Keep the Bears at Bay

Nebius posts 684% revenue growth and $50B in contracts, yet stock tumbles 30% on Meta cloud fears and insider selling. Market weighs fundamentals vs. competition.

Nebius Group sits at the intersection of two contradictory market narratives. On one side, the AI infrastructure provider has locked in over $50 billion in contracted revenue, posted 684% quarterly revenue growth, and landed a five-year, $27 billion partnership with Meta. On the other, the stock has shed roughly 30% from its June record of €261, trading at €182.54 after a 5.4% single-day rout on Monday. The tension between these two stories is pulling the shares in opposite directions, and the market has yet to settle on which one will prevail.

The latest leg down was triggered by a Bloomberg report that Meta is building its own cloud division to sell excess AI compute capacity. That news sent Nebius tumbling 10% in pre-market trading and extended a slide that has now erased nine percent over the past 30 days. Analyst house SemiAnalysis dismissed the fear as overblown, arguing that Meta's infrastructure build-out will accelerate rather than slow, but the damage to sentiment was done. An earlier session had already seen a 3.4% drop to €186.50, underscoring how quickly the stock can move when competitive concerns surface.

The fundamentals, for their part, are hard to ignore. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $399 million, topping expectations of $391.6 million and blowing past the prior year's $51 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $53.7 million to a positive $129.5 million. The company's contracted backlog now stands at over $50 billion, anchored by long-term deals with Meta ($27 billion through 2031), Microsoft ($17.4 billion through 2031), and an earlier $2 billion investment from Nvidia that also provides early access to next-generation chip architectures. Nebius is currently building out 65 megawatts of capacity across three sites in the UK, a project due by fiscal 2027 that is expected to generate an additional $546 million in revenue.

Yet the bears have ammunition of their own beyond the Meta cloud scare. Short interest sits at 20.13% of the free float, a sizable bet that the current valuation is stretched. Insider selling over the past 90 days has totaled $4.87 million net, with executives including CEO Arkadiy Volozh, CTO Danila Shtan, and chief infrastructure officer Andrey Korolenko collectively unloading shares worth over $134 million. The company emphasized that Volozh's $11 million sale was an automatic transaction tied to tax withholdings on vested restricted stock units, but the sheer volume has added to the unease.

Technically, the stock is caught in no-man's land. The 50-day moving average sits at €197.57, roughly 7.6% above the current price, while the RSI of 43.4 is neutral but drifting lower. The 30-day annualized volatility exceeds 100%, reflecting a market that cannot decide whether to buy the backlog or sell the competition fears. The 52-week high of €261 on June 22 now looks distant, and the stock has lost ground every week since.

Analysts remain broadly positive despite the sell-off. The consensus rating is Buy, with an average price target of $213.89. Bank of America is the most bullish at $280, while BNP Paribas initiated with Neutral and a $255 target. For now, the market cap of roughly €48.8 billion — and the sheer growth rate — makes Nebius too large to ignore. The next quarterly report, due by the end of July, will offer a fresh look at whether the Meta partnership is delivering even as Meta's own cloud ambitions loom. Until then, the stock remains a battle between a $50 billion pipeline and a 100% volatility reading.