Nebius Stock Under Pressure: $15 Billion Debt and Meta’s Cloud Ambitions Overshadow 684% Revenue Surge

Nebius Q1 revenue surges 684% to $399M, but $15B debt and Meta's emerging cloud rivalry send stock sliding 11% weekly, 28% off highs.

Investors in Nebius are grappling with a glaring disconnect. The company’s first-quarter revenue exploded 684% year-over-year to $399 million, and adjusted operating profit swung to a positive $129.5 million. Yet the stock has tumbled 11% in the past week, sliding another 7% on Thursday alone to €187.10. It now sits at roughly €188.74, a full 28% below its 52-week high.

The culprit? A debt pile that has ballooned 1,000% in the past twelve months, reaching $15 billion. Long-term borrowings alone have doubled to $8.4 billion as the AI-infrastructure builder races to scale. Management has dramatically raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to as much as $25 billion, up from an earlier plan of $16–20 billion. To bridge the gap, Nebius is turning to asset-backed financing secured by contracts with Meta and Microsoft, while customer prepayments and a recent convertible bond issue have padded cash reserves to $9.3 billion. Analysts worry the financing race leaves little margin for error: expected full-year revenue at the high end is $3.4 billion, a fraction of the outlay.

Adding to the anxiety, Meta Platforms—one of Nebius’s biggest clients and a partner in multi-billion-dollar long-term agreements—is reportedly building its own cloud business. The tech giant intends to sell excess AI capacity commercially, turning a key customer into a direct rival. A massive order backlog of over $50 billion, anchored by names like Microsoft and Meta, provides some cushion. But if Meta pulls future business or renegotiates on harsher terms, Nebius’s entire financial model could creak. At a time when the company is hunting for fresh capital, a weaker competitive position would make debt even costlier.

The insider trading column adds another layer of unease. Recently, $132 million worth of Nebius shares changed hands in insider sales. The company was quick to explain that CEO Arkadiy Volozh sold his stock solely to cover tax obligations, but the timing stoked bearish sentiment.

Still, bulls point to Nebius’s technological edge and strategic ties. Chip leader Nvidia holds a reported stake in the firm, which should prove crucial in securing scarce graphics processors. Acquisitions such as Eigen AI and Clarifai are broadening the service offering into more profitable, higher-margin AI applications and bringing in younger start-up clients. The 14 analysts covering the stock at Wall Street remain broadly optimistic, with a consensus price target of $244.

Technical indicators suggest the sell-off may have cooled. The relative strength index has settled at 42.6, down from the overheated levels of earlier this year. Year-to-date, the equity is still up roughly 145%, and over the past twelve months, the gain stands at a stunning 340%. However, the distance to the 200-day moving average remains an unusually wide 62%, hinting that the stock could remain vulnerable to profit-taking.

The next major catalyst lands on August 6, when Nebius reports second-quarter results. The market will scrutinize updates on data-center construction timelines and any new client wins. Management has committed to delivering recurring revenue in the high single-digit billions by the end of 2026, backed by over 4 gigawatts of AI capacity. For now, the stock’s direction hinges on whether Nebius can outrun both its debt load and the shadow of a once-benevolent partner turned competitor.