Nebius Stock: The $46 Billion Backlog Meets a $20 Billion Build-Out

Nebius faces a critical earnings test on April 29. With shares near highs, the AI infrastructure firm must prove its $46B backlog and massive data center build-out can deliver financial results.

The upcoming quarterly report from AI infrastructure provider Nebius is shaping up to be a critical test of execution. With shares trading near record highs after a blistering 94% rally year-to-date, the company must now demonstrate its ambitious expansion plans are translating into financial reality. All eyes are on the April 29 earnings release.

Wall Street’s consensus expects first-quarter revenue of approximately $382 million. This marks the first major financial update since the announcement of a landmark deal with Meta, placing significant pressure on management to deliver a clean beat. The stock currently hovers just 8% below its April peak of around $169, with its Relative Strength Index approaching 70—a level often signaling overbought conditions that can invite profit-taking.

Financing this breakneck growth is a monumental task. Nebius plans to spend between $16 billion and $20 billion this year alone to build new data centers in the US and Europe, a figure that dwarfs its current revenue stream. To fund this, the company recently closed a $4.3 billion convertible note offering. The strategic goal is audacious: to scale its data center capacity from 170 megawatts at the end of 2025 to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the close of 2026.

Supporting this capital-intensive vision is a staggering backlog of committed business. The company’s order book stands at roughly $46 billion, backed by long-term agreements with industry giants like Microsoft and Nvidia. For the period from 2027 to 2031, the total value of contractually secured orders climbs to nearly $50 billion. New contracts are now running about 50% longer on average than they were in the third quarter of 2025, and the sales pipeline for 2026 is expected to surpass $4 billion.

This fundamental picture has fueled overwhelming bullishness among analysts. Of the 14 Wall Street firms tracked by Investing.com, 11 rate the stock a “Buy.” The average price target sits at $170, with the most optimistic projection reaching $291.

However, a lone, notable skeptic has emerged. Wolfe Research initiated coverage on April 16 with a “Peer Perform” rating—essentially a hold. Analyst Arsenije Matovic set a fair value range of $80 to $170, derived from 4 to 8 times the estimated EBITDA for fiscal year 2027. The lower bound of that range implies a nearly 50% downside from the recent price of around $158. Wolfe acknowledges the robust demand evidenced by deals with Microsoft and Meta but questions Nebius’s ability to finance and execute its aggressive build-out on schedule. This caution was echoed recently when Freedom Capital Markets downgraded the stock to a “Hold.”

Technologically, Nebius is positioning itself at the forefront, being among the first cloud providers alongside AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and CoreWeave to deploy NVIDIA’s new Vera Rubin architecture in its data centers. Management’s long-term targets are equally bold, aiming for 2026 revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin nearing 40%. This would represent a dramatic leap from 2025 revenue of $530 million.

Trading at a price-to-sales multiple of 67, the stock has perfection priced in. The April 29 report will be scrutinized for one key metric: evidence that the massive order backlog is efficiently converting into operating cash flow. Proof that the data center construction timeline is on track could propel the stock to new highs. Any sign of stalling recurring revenue, however, may trigger the harsh reality check that skeptics anticipate.