Nebius Stock Surges Past $191 as NVIDIA Certification and $643 Million AI Deal Bolster Pre-Earnings Momentum

Nebius shares surge to $191.64, fueled by NVIDIA certification, Eigen AI acquisition, and $50B backlog, but governance risks loom.

Nebius Group shares hit a fresh intraday record of $191.64 on Wednesday, extending a rally that has seen the stock more than double over the past year as the AI infrastructure company barrels toward its first-quarter earnings release on May 13.

The stock now trades roughly 22% above its 20-day moving average and nearly 86% above its 200-day moving average — a configuration that signals sustained institutional buying pressure but also leaves the shares vulnerable to profit-taking if the upcoming report disappoints.

NVIDIA Seal of Approval

Late April brought a significant validation: Nebius received NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud Status for its GB300-NVL72 systems, certifying that its infrastructure meets 95% of NVIDIA’s reference benchmarks for AI training workloads. For enterprise clients planning production deployments, the designation serves as a tangible quality marker in an increasingly crowded AI cloud market.

Nebius is among a handful of providers that have maintained this certification across multiple GPU generations, giving it a distinct competitive edge as hyperscalers and enterprises alike scramble for reliable compute capacity.

Eigen AI Acquisition Reshapes the Platform

The company followed up in early May with the $643 million acquisition of Eigen AI, a move designed to embed inference optimization layers directly into Nebius’ existing Token Factory platform. The market responded with fresh buying interest, pushing the stock to new highs.

The deal comes against the backdrop of a staggering order book. Nebius carries a contracted backlog approaching $50 billion, anchored by a multi-year agreement with Meta worth $27 billion, a Microsoft commitment of up to $19.4 billion, and a $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA.

The Numbers That Matter

Wall Street expects first-quarter revenue between $374 million and $388 million — a dramatic leap from the $55 million reported in the same period last year. For context, the company generated $227.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, a figure that itself was considered explosive at the time. Analysts project a loss per share of roughly $0.77.

Management has held firm on its ambitious full-year targets: an annualized ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end 2026, total revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%.

Governance Questions Linger Beneath the Surface

The annual report filed on April 30 disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting — specifically related to property, plant and equipment accounting and revenue recognition within the TripleTen segment. The company has committed to remediating these deficiencies by the end of 2026.

Founder Arkady Volozh controls roughly 52% of voting rights through a family trust while holding an economic interest of only about 11%, a structure that classifies Nebius as a "Controlled Company" under Nasdaq rules. This designation reduces requirements for board independence.

Recent insider selling has raised eyebrows, though the transactions were executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans established in fall 2025, limiting their signaling value.

Analyst Consensus With One Skeptic

All ten analysts covering Nebius rate the stock a Buy, with price targets ranging from $120 to $211 and a median of $163 — a level the stock has already surpassed after its 600%-plus surge over twelve months.

Wolfe Research stands apart, initiating coverage with a Peer Perform rating and an unusually wide fair value range of $80 to $170. The firm acknowledges secured demand from large clients but flags substantial execution and financing risks tied to the company's aggressive expansion trajectory.

Three Questions for May 13

Beyond the headline revenue figure, investors will scrutinize three key areas: whether ARR growth is tracking toward management's targets, the progress of hyperscaler deployments with Meta and Microsoft, and any early signals on the timeline for integrating Eigen AI's technology.

The first-quarter report will determine whether Nebius' revenue ramp is on schedule — and whether the current valuation can hold, or if Wolfe Research's caution will prove prescient.