Nebius Stock Surges 32% as $50 Billion Backlog Highlights AI Cloud Ambition and Execution Risk

Nebius amasses $50B order backlog from Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, driving a 32% stock surge. First-quarter revenue jumps 684%, but massive capex plans raise delivery questions.

Nebius has amassed a contracted order backlog approaching $50 billion — a figure that underscores the sheer momentum in AI cloud demand and has sent its shares rocketing 32% in just five trading days. The stock closed Friday at $213.29, pulling back from a weekly high of $226.81 on Thursday, but still more than six times its 52-week low of $34.72. Over the past 90 days, the equity has more than doubled, touching an all-time high of $233.73 on May 14.

The backbone of the backlog is a $27 billion multi-year contract with Meta Platforms, alongside commitments from Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion and a $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA. That trio of hyperscaler anchors has catapulted Nebius into a different weight class, yet the sheer scale of the orders also raises a pressing question: can the company deliver on time?

First-quarter results released earlier this month provided a snapshot of the trajectory. Revenue hit $399 million, a year-over-year surge of 684%, while rival CoreWeave posted $2.1 billion in Q1 2026 sales — a 112% gain. Nebius’s balance sheet tells a contrasting story too: it ended 2025 with $3.7 billion in cash and a net profit of $101.7 million, whereas CoreWeave carried over $20 billion in debt and lost $1.2 billion. The comparison strengthens Nebius’s argument for leaner, faster growth, but the investment required to sustain it is ballooning.

Capacity expansion is accelerating. Nebius already has more than 3.5 gigawatts of contracted power under its belt, surpassing its original full-year target of 3 GW. Management has raised the 2026 guidance to over 4 GW, with more than 75% of that capacity expected to be owned. Two new U.S. sites are in the pipeline: a gigawatt campus in Independence, Missouri, spanning 400 hectares and expected to create 1,200 construction jobs plus 130 permanent positions, and a second facility in Pennsylvania capable of up to 1.2 GW, slated to begin operations by the end of 2027.

All this comes at a cost. Nebius has lifted its capital expenditure plan for 2026 to between $20 billion and $25 billion, up from an earlier $16–20 billion range and a stark contrast to the $5 billion spent in all of 2025. The company’s annualized revenue run-rate from Q1 stood at $1.9 billion, far below the $7–9 billion target by year-end. Management also reaffirmed a target adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40% for 2026.

Wall Street remains split on valuation. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $144 but kept an “Equal-weight” rating, noting better pricing power and faster capacity build but staying well below current levels. Northland analyst Nehal Chokshi was more bullish, lifting his target to $248 and citing superior revenue quality and quicker AI software innovation. The consensus from 15 analysts stands at $230.77 with a buy recommendation, though targets range from $120 to $291. In a bull case, Morgan Stanley sees the stock reaching $400 if Nebius brings more than 5 GW online by 2030.

The real test, however, lies in execution. Nebius plans to scale its operational capacity from 170 megawatts to between 800 MW and 1 GW this year alone, relying on thousands of GPUs, hundreds of engineers, and smooth permitting across four countries. Any hiccup in GPU deliveries or construction timelines would push revenue from 2026 into 2027 — and with the stock trading just 7% below the average analyst target, there is scant room for disappointment. The next quarterly report, due this summer, will reveal whether the current annualized revenue of $1.9 billion can truly scale toward the lofty $7–9 billion range management has promised.