Nebius Stock Flashes Rare Oversold Signal After Aschenbrenner Bet Drives Record High

Nebius shares hit $259.23 then fell 9% to RSI 16, deeply oversold. Bullish hedge fund bets clash with cautious analysts amid hypergrowth revenue but massive capex and short interest.

The Nebius share price hit an all-time high of $259.23 in early June, only to retreat roughly 9% to around $221. The pullback has pushed the relative strength index to 16, a level that typically signals deeply oversold conditions for a stock that has still more than septupled over the past twelve months. That technical anomaly sits at the heart of a debate between bullish hedge fund money and cautious sell-side analysts.

The spike to the record came on the back of a regulatory filing on June 1. Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher who now runs the Situational Awareness LP hedge fund, disclosed a 5.6% stake — roughly 12.4 million shares. The stock jumped 8.7% in a single session as the market interpreted the move as a powerful vote of confidence from a figure deep inside the artificial-intelligence ecosystem. Aschenbrenner’s bet is that Nebius can become the dominant specialist in cloud infrastructure for GPU-heavy AI workloads.

Institutional interest is building beyond Aschenbrenner. Forsta AP Fonden, Millennium Management and UBS have also added positions, lifting total institutional ownership to nearly 22%. Yet the stock remains heavily contested: about 21% of the free float is short, representing more than 45 million shares outstanding on the bear side.

Analyst targets are split widely. Citigroup raised its price objective to $287, the highest on the Street, while BNP Paribas Exane rated the shares neutral with a $255 target — slightly below the current level at the time of the note. The broader consensus, however, sits at just $188, reflecting deep uncertainty about how to value a company growing revenue at a triple-digit pace while burning enormous amounts of capital.

Nebius’ first-quarter 2026 results underline the hypergrowth narrative. Total revenue reached $399 million, up 684% year-over-year. The AI cloud segment alone accounted for $389.7 million of that, an 841% surge. On a per-share basis, the company posted a loss of $0.23 — significantly better than the $0.77 loss analysts had forecast. The management’s medium-term target calls for annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion.

To support that ambition, Nebius is spending aggressively. Capital expenditure for 2026 is guided at $20 billion to $25 billion. A new data centre in Pennsylvania with 1.2 gigawatts of capacity is in the works, and a 310-megawatt facility in Lappeenranta, Finland, is set to go live this month. That Finnish plant will serve as an early test of the company’s ability to execute at scale.

The spending is backstopped by two landmark contracts: a five-year agreement with Meta worth $27 billion and a tie-up with Microsoft valued at $19.4 billion. But analysts caution that GAAP profitability is unlikely before the end of the decade given the capital intensity, and questions over financing — including potential equity dilution — remain unresolved.

For now, the stock is trading roughly 14% above the consensus target, yet the RSI of 16 suggests near-term selling may be exhausted. Whether that technical setup attracts value hunters or gets overwhelmed by short pressure will depend on how the market reconciles Nebius’ breakneck expansion with the long wait for cash returns.