Nebius Shares Plunge on Renewed Trade Policy Fears

Nebius shares plummet 9% as new US tariff plan pressures AI infrastructure sector. The sell-off erases recent gains despite strong revenue growth and analyst optimism.

A surprise announcement on import tariffs from the United States sent shockwaves through the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector on Friday, triggering a sharp sell-off. Nebius shares were among the hardest hit, plummeting 9% in a single session. The decline erased much of the recent rally the stock had enjoyed following its fourth-quarter earnings report and a series of positive analyst initiations.

Sector-Wide Pressure from New Tariff Proposal

The selling pressure was not isolated to Nebius. Key competitors CoreWeave and Iren also posted significant losses. The catalyst was a fresh proposal by U.S. President Trump for a new global tariff of 10%, coming after the Supreme Court had overturned previous tariffs enacted under the Emergency Economic Powers Act.

This new layer of potential cost comes on top of the existing 25% duty on AI chips levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. For companies like Nebius, which rely heavily on investments in NVIDIA GPUs to power their data centers, the prospect adds further cost pressure to an already capital-intensive business model.

Nebius stock closed the day at $97.92, down sharply from the previous close of $107.61. Trading volume surged to approximately 17.2 million shares, well above the average volume of 13.4 million.

Acquisition and Analyst Activity Preceded Sell-Off

The week leading into the decline was eventful. On February 10, Nebius disclosed the acquisition of Tavily, a provider of agentic search technology, for $275 million. The deal is set to integrate real-time web search capabilities into the Nebius AI cloud platform, with Tavily's team, led by founder Rotem Weiss, joining the company.

Analyst coverage also increased. Compass Point initiated coverage on February 18 with a Buy rating and a $150 price target. BWS Financial reaffirmed its own Buy recommendation. Regulatory filings revealed that asset manager BlackRock had established a significant position, while GF Fund Management and CIBC World Markets increased their stakes. Morgan Stanley maintained a more cautious stance following NVIDIA's latest platform launch.

Earnings Momentum Halted by Macro News

The downturn followed a mixed quarterly report. On February 12, Nebius released results for Q4 2025. Revenue skyrocketed 547% year-over-year to $227.7 million, though it fell short of the consensus estimate of approximately $246 million. Earnings per share also missed expectations.

Despite the misses, investor focus had initially shifted to forward-looking metrics, allowing the stock to gain in subsequent days. The company reported its active power capacity reached 170 megawatts by year-end, while annualized recurring revenue jumped 127% to $1.25 billion.

Aggressive Growth Targets for 2026

Management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0 to $3.4 billion. Furthermore, it targets an annualized revenue run-rate of $7 to $9 billion by the end of 2026. The company has increased its contracted power capacity from over 2.5 gigawatts to more than 3 gigawatts. Available data center capacity is projected to reach between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of this year.

To support this expansion, Nebius plans capital expenditures of $16 to $20 billion in 2026, with approximately 60% of this amount already financed. Nine new data center locations across the United States, France, Israel, and the United Kingdom have been announced.

Key Financial Data

Metric	Value
Closing Price (Feb 20)	$97.92 USD
Daily Change	-9.00%
Market Capitalization	~$24.7 Billion USD
Q4 2025 Revenue	$227.7 Million USD (+547% YoY)
2026 Revenue Forecast	$3.0–$3.4 Billion USD
2026 ARR Target	$7–9 Billion USD
Planned 2026 Investments	$16–20 Billion USD
Next Quarterly Report	April 29, 2026

Despite the recent setback, Nebius shares remain up roughly 17% since the start of the year as of February 20. The market continues to be divided over the gap between the company's aggressive capacity build-out and its current profitability. Until the next earnings release in late April, trade policy developments and broader AI sector spending sentiment are likely to be the primary drivers of the stock's performance.