Nebius Secures Key US Approval for Major AI Data Center Project

Nebius secures key incentives for its largest US AI data center, 'Project Independence,' as explosive revenue growth and a $20B+ backlog fuel ambitious 2026 targets.

The city council of Independence, Missouri, has granted a crucial package of development incentives for Nebius's planned artificial intelligence data center, dubbed "Project Independence." This move transforms a corporate announcement into a concrete site decision, providing the market with a level of certainty that had previously been lacking. The focus now shifts to the company's ability to execute on construction and capacity utilization.

Market Responds Positively to Regulatory Green Light

News of the approval was met with investor enthusiasm. On Wednesday, Nebius shares surged by more than 12%. The stock's trajectory over the past year, however, has been highly volatile, as evidenced by a 52-week range stretching from a low of $18.31 to a high of $141.10.

The approved "Chapter 100" industrial development plan includes tax incentives for building the AI campus. According to the company, "Project Independence" is slated to become its largest "AI Factory" in the United States to date, with a planned capacity of 1.2 gigawatts.

Explosive Growth Metrics and Substantial Capital Outlays

Nebius recently reported unaudited 2025 results featuring extraordinary revenue growth. Annual revenue climbed to $529.8 million, a 479% increase over the prior year. Fourth-quarter revenue alone reached $227.7 million, up 547%. Operational performance also showed marked improvement. The full-year adjusted EBITDA was -$64.9 million, a significant recovery from -$226.3 million in 2024. Notably, the fourth quarter saw adjusted EBITDA turn positive for the first time, landing at +$15 million.

The company also reported a positive operating cash flow from continuing activities of $401.9 million for 2025. In Q4, operating cash flow hit $834 million, which Nebius stated was "primarily" driven by prepayments from long-term contracts. This strong cash generation stood in stark contrast to a massive investment requirement: $4.1 billion was directed into property, plant, and equipment during the final quarter.

A Backlog Exceeding $20 Billion Fuels Ambitious 2026 Targets

A cornerstone of market confidence is the company's secured order backlog. Nebius highlights two major five-year contracts: one valued at $3 billion with Meta, signed in November 2025, and a separate agreement with Microsoft worth over $19 billion. Combined, this represents a committed backlog exceeding $20 billion.

Furthermore, the company ended 2025 with $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Regarding capacity, Nebius emphasized it was "sold out" in both Q3 and Q4 of 2025 and is already sold out for Q1 2026, with capacity often fully allocated before facilities even become operational.

The outlook for 2026 remains highly ambitious. The company forecasts revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion, with the majority of capacity deliveries scheduled for the second half of the year. Management has reaffirmed its goal to achieve an annualized run-rate (ARR) of $7 to $9 billion by the end of 2026. While the group-level adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to reach approximately 40% for the year, EBIT is expected to remain negative due to expansion costs, GPU rollout, and higher R&D expenditures.

On the expansion front, Nebius plans to increase its number of data center locations to 16 in 2026 (up from 7 in 2025) and boost active capacity to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026. Planned investments for the year are estimated at $16 to $20 billion. Initial financing is expected to come from operating cash flows and funds already received or anticipated from long-term contracts. The company states it currently carries no debt at the group level but anticipates a capital structure in 2026 that will include external financing.

In a complementary move, Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily to integrate "agentic search" capabilities into its AI cloud platform. The Tavily brand will be maintained, and its team will join Nebius.

Ultimately, the regulatory approval in Missouri represents a pivotal shift. With reduced uncertainty on that front, investor attention will now zero in on execution—the timeline, the expansion pace, and the conversion of the substantial backlog into revenue. The credibility of the company's forecasts will be measured against these deliverables throughout 2026.