Nebius Races Toward Earnings With a Record High, a $643 Million AI Bet, and Insider Sales

Nebius stock hits all-time high after acquiring Eigen AI for $643M, shifting to PaaS, with massive data center buildout and strong institutional backing.

The Nebius Group story has become one of the most compelling—and contentious—in the AI infrastructure space. The stock has more than doubled since the start of the year, hitting an all-time high of roughly $198 this week before pulling back slightly. By Friday's close, the shares still posted a weekly gain of about 16 percent, a rally that has left most tech peers in the dust. The catalyst? A string of strategic moves that have transformed the company from a pure-play infrastructure provider into something far more ambitious.

The Eigen AI Deal Reshapes the Narrative

The latest spark came with the announcement that Nebius will acquire Eigen AI, a startup that develops software to boost the performance of AI chips, for roughly $643 million. The deal will be funded through a mix of about $98 million in cash and 3.8 million Nebius shares. It marks the company's second acquisition in three months, following February's purchase of the AI search platform Tavily for $275 million.

Both transactions share a common goal: shifting Nebius away from a reliance on raw computing capacity—the Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) model—and toward higher-margin Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) offerings. That strategic pivot sets the company apart from competitors still focused on renting out server space.

A Buildout That Rivals the Biggest Players

Beyond M&A, Nebius is scaling its physical footprint at a breakneck pace. At the end of 2024, the company operated just two data centers. By the close of 2025, that number had grown to seven. Management now expects to have 16 sites operational by the end of 2026.

The expansion spans three continents. In March, Nebius announced plans for an AI data center in Lappeenranta, Finland, with a capacity of up to 310 megawatts and a total investment of $10 billion across multiple phases. First customer deliveries are slated for 2027. In the EMEA region, the company has secured more than 750 megawatts of contracted capacity, including a 240-megawatt facility near Lille, France. In the U.S., Nebius received approval for a gigawatt-scale data center in Missouri, while its 300-megawatt site in Vineland, New Jersey, serves as the foundation for a multiyear partnership with Microsoft, which has committed up to $19.4 billion for GPU capacity.

The financing structure is a key selling point for investors. More than 60 percent of the planned capital expenditures for 2026—which could reach $20 billion—are covered by upfront customer payments. That arrangement significantly reduces the dilution risk for existing shareholders.

Institutional Money Pours In

The institutional crowd has taken notice. Millennium Management built a new position worth roughly $11.6 million in the first quarter, while UBS increased its stake by about $9 million. State Street, meanwhile, boosted its holdings by more than 2,300 percent in the fourth quarter and now owns shares valued at around $269 million. Overall, institutional ownership stands at about 21.9 percent of outstanding shares.

Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $205 after the Meta deal and boosted its revenue estimates for 2027 through 2030 by 30 to 54 percent. BWS Financial and DA Davidson both see fair value at $200. Cantor Fitzgerald rates the stock "Overweight," while Bank of America and Citigroup initiated coverage in March with "Buy" ratings. The consensus among 12 analysts is "Strong Buy," with an average price target of $163.

But not everyone is convinced. Wolfe Research started coverage in April with a neutral rating and a valuation range of $80 to $170, citing execution and financing risks—a reminder that the story is far from settled.

Insider Sales Temper the Euphoria

While the stock has soared, company insiders have been cashing out. Over the past three months, executives and directors have sold shares worth more than $15.6 million. CTO Danila Shtan unloaded over 13,000 shares in late March, while insider Andrey Korolenko sold more than 31,000 shares in early April. Director Elena Bunina disposed of nearly 5,900 shares on May 4 at $170 each. All transactions were conducted under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans.

The Earnings Test Arrives Wednesday

All eyes now turn to Wednesday, May 13, when Nebius reports first-quarter results before the market opens. Analysts expect revenue of $375 million—a year-over-year surge of roughly 578 percent—but also a loss per share of $0.77, compared with a loss of $0.41 in the same period last year.

The critical question is whether the company's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) is on track to hit the full-year target of $7 billion to $9 billion. At the end of 2025, ARR stood at $1.25 billion, above the company's own guidance range. Investors will also be watching for updates on the integration of the Meta and Microsoft deployments.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Nebius reached an inflection point: adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $15 million, compared with a deficit of roughly $64 million a year earlier. Management has said that contracted cash flows will cover about 60 percent of this year's investments. Whether that is enough to fund the aggressive capacity expansion—and whether the growth story can eventually translate into operating profits—are the questions that Wednesday's numbers will need to answer. CoreWeave's recent results have shown that growth alone no longer impresses the market.