Nebius Powers Through Choppy Week as $2.6 Billion Bloom Energy Pact Eases Grid Dependency

Nebius shares see volatile week, ending down 2.35% after announcing a long-term Bloom Energy partnership to bypass grid bottlenecks for AI data centers.

A 9% tumble on Monday, a 14% surge on Thursday, and a net weekly loss of just 2.35%. For investors in Nebius, the past five trading days offered a masterclass in the volatility that defines the AI infrastructure space. By Friday's close at $214.77, the stock had clawed back almost all of its earlier losses, a pattern that looks more like high-level consolidation than any trend reversal.

The week's turbulence unfolded against the backdrop of a single corporate announcement: on May 20, Nebius unveiled a long-term partnership with Bloom Energy worth up to $2.6 billion in service fees over a decade. The deal, which remains subject to specific conditions, is designed to accelerate the rollout of Nebius's data centers by bypassing one of the industry's toughest bottlenecks—grid power.

Bloom Energy will supply modular solid-oxide fuel cells across three phases, delivering 250 megawatts of guaranteed power and 328 megawatts of installed capacity. The first project is set to go live before the end of this year. The technology generates electricity without combustion and with minimal water usage, a critical advantage for AI-cloud operators racing to bring capacity online while utility grids struggle to keep pace.

The partnership fits neatly into Nebius's broader expansion playbook. The company's contracted capacity has already surpassed 3.5 gigawatts, exceeding its earlier full-year target of 3 gigawatts. Management now expects to end 2024 with more than 4 gigawatts under contract, over 75% of which will be owned directly. A new site in Pennsylvania adds up to 1.2 gigawatts, complementing an existing 1.2-gigawatt AI factory in Independence, Missouri, with phased availability starting in 2027.

Nebius's financial position, however, underscores the cost of this growth. Operating expenses swelled to $527 million, generating an operating loss of $128 million. Free cash flow remains negative, debt has increased, and there is no dividend cushion. The company will likely need additional equity and debt to fund its data centers and graphics processor acquisitions. On the revenue side, Nebius is targeting $3.0 to $3.4 billion in sales for 2026, with an annualized recurring revenue goal of $7 to $9 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40%. The Bloom contract alone could open annual revenue opportunities of $3.3 to $4.9 billion, according to company estimates.

The market response to the Bloom deal has been swift. Since late April, Nebius shares have climbed from the $135–$145 range to above $200. On May 21, the stock closed at $219.93 after hitting an intraday high of $226.81. The 52-week range spans from $34.72 to $233.73, illustrating just how far the equity has come. Year-to-date, the advance exceeds 156%, and over three months the stock has more than doubled.

Analysts remain divided on valuation. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $144 from $126 but maintains an equal-weight stance, well below the stock's May 13 close of $207.27. In a bullish scenario, the bank sees $400 if Nebius achieves more than 5 gigawatts of capacity by 2030. The broader S&P Global consensus of 15 analysts sits at $230.77, with targets ranging from $120 to $291.

Technically, the immediate support zone lies around $210.73 (Friday's low) and $208.80 (Thursday's low), with deeper protection at the week's trough of $183.00. On the upside, resistance emerges near $222, then $226–$227. A break above that band would put the May high of $233.73 back in play. The relative strength index of 71.36 signals overbought conditions, suggesting further consolidation may be needed before the next leg higher.

Longer term, Nebius aims to operate 5 gigawatts of active data center capacity by the end of 2030—roughly five times what is expected this year. The Bloom Energy agreement, for all its conditional complexity, aligns perfectly with that trajectory. The key question for investors is whether the company can execute its rapid expansion without excessive dilution or delays, giving the current elevated valuation more operational ballast.