Nebius Earnings Preview: $389 Million Revenue Surge Meets $15 Million Insider Selling Spree

Nebius reports Q1 2026 earnings May 13 as insider stock sales of $14.7M contrast with massive $44B+ AI contracts from Microsoft and Meta, while losses widen from heavy infrastructure spending.

Nebius is charging into its first-quarter earnings report with a deal pipeline that rivals any AI infrastructure play on the market — but a steady drip of insider stock sales over the past three months is tempering the euphoria. When the company releases its numbers on May 13, investors will be scrutinizing not just the top line, but whether management’s confidence matches the $14.7 million in shares that directors and executives have quietly offloaded.

The insider sales, all conducted through pre-arranged trading plans, include a transaction by Director Elena Bunina on May 6 for roughly 10,800 shares worth about $2 million. Over the preceding 90 days, CEO Arkady Volozh and others collectively sold shares valued at approximately $14.7 million. While legally above board, the timing — ahead of a pivotal quarterly report when the stock is hovering near an all-time high — creates an uncomfortable optical contrast with Nebius’s ambitious growth narrative.

That narrative is built on a staggering contract stack. In September 2025, Nebius locked in a five-year deal with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion for dedicated GPU infrastructure. Three months later came a $3 billion commitment from Meta, expanded in March 2026 to as much as $27 billion. These partnerships helped drive 2025 full-year revenue to $530 million — a 479% surge — with the fourth quarter alone contributing $228 million. The company’s annualized recurring revenue stood at $1.25 billion at year-end, and management has set a target of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026.

Analysts expect first-quarter 2026 revenue to hit as high as $389 million, nearly six times the year-ago figure. But the cost side is equally dramatic: a projected loss of $0.77 per share, reflecting Nebius’s heavy spending on AI infrastructure. The company plans capital expenditures in the double-digit billions for 2026 alone, and analysts do not foresee positive free cash flow before 2030.

To improve margins and differentiate itself from pure infrastructure players, Nebius has been scooping up technology assets. In February it acquired search specialist Tavily, and in March it paid $643 million for Eigen AI, a startup that optimizes open-source models such as Llama. The strategy is to evolve from a data-center operator into a higher-margin platform provider — a pivot that the Eigen AI deal is designed to accelerate.

The share price has already priced in a great deal of optimism, having climbed 133% year to date to close near $177 on Friday. Analyst targets span a wide range: one consensus puts the average at $174, while another survey yields a closer-to $155 with a high of $291. Compass Point initiated coverage with a buy rating in February, and Citi sees “differentiated potential” in Nebius’s AI data-center growth and margin-friendly scaling. But there are cautionary voices as well. Wolfe Research rates the stock neutral and warns of financing risks, and Freedom Capital Markets downgraded to hold after the recent rally.

The May 13 report will test whether the story behind those numbers holds up. A strong showing on recurring revenue — the key metric the market is watching — could push the stock past $200. A miss, by contrast, would likely trigger a sharp pullback in a name that demands perfection.