Nebius Charges Into Nasdaq-100, Carrying a 684% Revenue Blast and a $27 Billion Order Book

Nebius posts $399M Q1 revenue, triples stock price, and enters Nasdaq-100 on June 22. Despite massive hyperscaler contracts and $20B capex, insider sales and 109% volatility signal caution.

The numbers coming out of Nebius are dizzying. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $399 million — a 684 percent leap from a year earlier. The stock has more than tripled since January, adding 228 percent to reach €252.35 on Thursday, just shy of the €259.50 52-week high. Next Monday, the company joins the Nasdaq-100, a milestone that locks in automatic buying from more than 200 exchange-traded funds and institutional portfolios managing over $800 billion. But beneath the surface, the picture is more nuanced.

Nebius is not refurbishing old cloud infrastructure for the AI era. It is building a purpose-built platform from scratch, optimised for machine-learning workloads. That strategy has attracted hyperscaler commitments of staggering size. Meta has signed contracts worth up to $27 billion through 2027, while Microsoft has lined up nearly $19 billion in capacity deals. Nvidia, the chipmaker at the centre of the AI boom, invested $2 billion in March 2026 and is co-developing a next-generation AI cloud platform with the company.

The spending required to deliver on those promises is equally monumental. Nebius has budgeted $20 billion to $25 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 alone, financing a build-out that targets more than five gigawatts of supercomputing capacity by 2030. Sites in Finland, France and the United Kingdom are already in development, with a £1.7 billion injection earmarked for British infrastructure and a 22-megawatt capacity agreement with UK data-centre operator Kao Data. In the US, management is planning giant AI factories.

On the software side, Nebius closed the acquisition of Eigen AI on June 10 for $643 million, adding an inference platform and a development base in Silicon Valley. The goal is to cover the entire AI lifecycle — from model training to deployment — on a single proprietary stack. That vertical integration, combined with early access to Nvidia’s latest graphics processors, gives the company a competitive edge in a market where demand for specialised compute far outstrips supply.

Still, the rally has stretched valuations. The relative strength index stands at 70.3, firmly in overbought territory, and the stock trades 48 percent above its 50-day moving average. BofA Securities recently lifted its price target to $280, roughly in line with the current euro-denominated level. Annualised volatility of 109 percent underscores the intense price swings.

Insider activity has added a note of caution. Director John Wilson IV Boynton sold nearly 5,800 shares at around $253 on June 15, and the chief technology officer and chief legal officer have also shed stakes in recent weeks, all under pre-arranged trading plans. On the institutional side, Armistice Capital increased its holding by a quarter at the end of 2025, while the net loss for the first quarter stood at $100.3 million.

The Nasdaq-100 inclusion on June 22 forces index-trackers to buy regardless of their own view, providing a short-term demand tailwind. Whether that momentum persists will depend on execution. Nebius is placing a multibillion-dollar bet that the world’s insatiable appetite for AI compute will keep its order books full and its revenue trajectory steep — even as it burns cash at a ferocious rate to build the factories that make that growth possible.