Nebius Builds the Bones of AI: From Gigawatts to Robot Labs

Nebius, a neocloud provider focused on AI inference, sees shares surge 511% as inference is set to dominate compute by 2026. NASDAQ 100 addition on June 22 and $46B pipeline drive momentum.

The artificial intelligence industry is undergoing a quiet but profound shift. After years of pouring compute into training ever-larger language models, the focus is moving to inference — the everyday operation of those models. By the end of 2026, inference is expected to account for two-thirds of all AI compute capacity. One European infrastructure provider, Nebius, has positioned itself squarely at the center of this pivot, and the market is rewarding it handsomely.

Shares have surged 511% over the past twelve months (one earlier measure showed 479% on a year-over-year basis), and the stock is now flirting with all-time highs. At €257.95, Nebius boasts a market capitalisation of roughly €65.6 billion — up from around €51 billion as recently as mid-June. The rally, however, is not a simple momentum story. It reflects a structural reassessment of what a purpose-built AI cloud company can become.

The Infrastructure Arms Race

Nebius is part of a new generation of cloud providers known as "neoclouds" — operators that focus exclusively on massive language model workloads rather than general-purpose computing. Its deep integration with Nvidia is central to the thesis. Nvidia invested $2 billion in the company, now holding an 8.3% stake, making Nebius a privileged channel for the chipmaker’s latest hardware. On June 10, Nebius also completed the acquisition of Eigen AI, strengthening its software stack.

Power has become the new currency in the AI sector. Nebius has aggressively scaled its contracted capacity from 2 gigawatts to over 3.5 gigawatts, with a target of 4 gigawatts by year-end. A partnership with Bloom Energy adds 328 megawatts, while a ten-year agreement with Kao Data in the UK provides another 22 megawatts. This buildout is underpinned by long-term customer commitments: a five-year deal with Meta is worth roughly $27 billion, and combined with Microsoft contracts, Nebius now has a revenue pipeline of more than $46 billion through 2031.

Beyond raw capacity, Nebius is developing a "Physical AI Living Lab" in collaboration with Nvidia — infrastructure designed to support robotics, autonomous delivery systems, and AI agents that operate in the physical world. The aim is to carve out a market position that goes beyond interchangeable cloud compute.

The Index Catalyst and the Pricing Question

The next major milestone arrives on June 22, when Nebius will be added to the NASDAQ 100. Index funds tracking the benchmark will be forced buyers, regardless of valuation. That passive demand has already driven the stock up 51% in the past 30 days, pushing the year-to-date gain to 237% (an earlier reading put it at 219%). The index inclusion, however, cuts both ways: it transforms the stock from speculative high-flyer into a core holding for institutional portfolios, but it also exposes it to the scrutiny of passive investors who may not share the bullish narrative.

That narrative is being tested by technical and fundamental tensions. The RSI currently sits at 71.4, firmly in overbought territory (it was 68.5 earlier in the week). The stock trades 138% above its 200-day moving average of €108.36, while the 30-day annualised volatility stands at a staggering 109.54%. Short interest has climbed to around 20% of the free float, and insider sales have totalled $132 million over the past 90 days, including sales by the CEO. New buyers are paying a hefty premium for future execution.

Numbers That Back the Hype — For Now

The fundamental case has real grounding. Nebius reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $399 million, an increase of 684% year over year — nearly eight times the prior year's figure. The ramp is happening. Yet the gap between revenue growth and sustainable profitability remains wide. The company has guided for capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion in 2026 alone, a massive commitment that requires flawless execution.

The next test will be the deployment of Nebius's next-generation Vera Rubin systems across its European and U.S. data centres. If these deliver the promised compute density, the valuation will gain a concrete foundation. If they fall short, a stock with triple-digit volatility and overbought technicals could face a sharp correction when high expectations collide with underwhelming results. For now, Nebius is no longer a bet on a hypothetical future — it is a very real, very expensive wager on the physical backbone of AI.