Nebius: A $123.5 Million Insider Exodus Clashes with a $25 Billion Infrastructure Bet

Nebius plans a 240MW AI data centre in France with €8B investment, but faces local opposition in US and insider stock sales as short interest hits 21%.

President Emmanuel Macron put Nebius front and centre at the “Choose France” summit on June 1, showcasing a plan to turn an old Bridgestone tyre plant in Béthune into a 240-megawatt AI data centre. The company is committing more than €8 billion to cloud infrastructure and services in France, with the first 60-megawatt phase due online in summer 2026. Local officials bill it as the country’s first facility dedicated entirely to artificial intelligence. Yet across the Atlantic, residents in Independence, Missouri, are pushing back hard against a separate Nebius data-centre project, demanding a one-year moratorium over water usage and infrastructure strain. The city council had already approved a full tax exemption for the 1.2-gigawatt site by a 5-2 vote.

The political whiplash mirrors the tension inside Nebius’s share register. Institutions are piling in: Situational Awareness LP snapped up more than 12 million shares at an average $197.73, making the stock 15.21% of its portfolio, while Sweden’s Forsta AP Fonden opened a new position of roughly 47,500 shares in the fourth quarter. But insiders have been heading for the exits. Over the past 90 days they sold shares worth a combined $123.5 million. CEO Arkadiy Volozh unloaded 33,358 shares in April at $103.73, trimming his stake by 3.7%. Director Elena Bunina slashed more than half her holding in May, selling 10,894 shares at $206.87. Andrey Korolenko disposed of 500,000 shares at $203.24.

The bearish side is also stacking up. Short interest stands at 21% of the free float — more than 45 million shares — leaving the stock vulnerable to violent squeezes. On June 1, Nebius surged 14.5% on heavy volume of over 24 million shares, and the GraniteShares 2x Long NBIS Daily ETF jumped more than 29%. The following day the shares oscillated between $260.66 and $282.65 before closing at $262.23.

The fundamental story supporting the rally is compelling. First-quarter revenue hit $399 million, up 684% year-on-year, with the AI Cloud division contributing $389.7 million, a gain of 841%. The annualised revenue run-rate stood at $1.92 billion at the end of March, and adjusted EBITDA swung to $129.5 million in the black. Net income from continuing operations reached $621 million, versus a $104 million loss a year earlier. Management’s target is an annualised run-rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end.

Nebius has the contract base to justify those ambitions. A five-year agreement with Meta is worth $27 billion — $12 billion in committed capacity and up to $15 billion in optional computing power. A separate deal with Microsoft runs to $19.4 billion, with deliveries beginning in the second half of 2026. The company’s total order backlog exceeds $46 billion. On the energy side, a long-term partnership with Bloom Energy covers service fees of up to $2.6 billion, initially supporting 328 megawatts of behind-the-meter capacity.

Nvidia’s endorsement adds further tailwind. On the COMPUTEX stage in Taiwan, Jensen Huang singled out Nebius as one of a handful of “world-class AI clouds,” name-checking customers such as Cursor, World Labs, Revolut and Shopify, and positioning the company alongside Microsoft and CoreWeave as an early adopter of the Vera Rubin architecture.

Yet the expansion comes at a staggering cost. Nebius plans to invest $20 billion to $25 billion in 2026 alone. In the first quarter it already ploughed $2.47 billion into property, plant and equipment and intangibles. With $9.3 billion in cash on hand at the end of March, the math leaves a funding gap of $4 billion to $5 billion, keeping the prospect of a capital raise firmly on the table.

Analysts are broadly constructive but cautious on valuation. BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $255 target, arguing that after a 216% year-to-date rally, near-term upside is limited. Citigroup sees $287, Citizens JMP $270, and the consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with a target range stretching from $164.20 to $287. The wide dispersion reflects the central debate: explosive growth versus enormous capital intensity and customer concentration. Nebius has the revenue trajectory and political backing to chase its ambition — but at $25 billion a year, the cost of that chase is exactly what keeps the bulls and bears locked in a standoff.