Nasdaq 100 in a Waiting Game Ahead of Key Data

NASDAQ 100 US6311011026

Premarket action for the Nasdaq 100 futures is subdued, trading modestly lower ahead of the session. Investors are weighing geopolitical uncertainty around Venezuela, a strong rally in semiconductor names, and the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release for the industrial sector.

As of about 08:15, Nasdaq-100 futures were around 25,471, down roughly 0.3%. The cash index closed Friday at 25,206.17, a decline of 0.17%.

Friday’s session featured notable volatility: the index swung about 511 points from a low near 25,086.36 to a high around 25,597.65, before finishing a touch lower. Trading volume remained light due to the holiday backdrop, while the implied volatility surface picked up. The VIX and related gauges rose, reflecting uncertainty after the United States’ detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the potential spillovers for global energy markets.

Across the Pacific, Asian markets largely ignored the geopolitical development, with the Shanghai Composite up just over 1%. In contrast, U.S. Treasuries and equity futures showed a more cautious stance. Within the Nasdaq 100, rotation between highfliers in semiconductors and some laggards in the consumer space continues to prevent a clear breakout.

Chips up, Tesla under pressure

Trading dynamics on Friday and into today’s early session are dominated by the split between semiconductor names and large cap consumer/tech stocks.

• Semiconductors as a leadership group:
• Micron Technology surged 10.51% on Friday, leading the index advance.
• ASML rose 8.78%.
• Lam Research gained 8.11%.
• Intel advanced 6.72%.

The move reflects renewed confidence in heavy investment in AI infrastructure anticipated for 2026.

• Pressure on Tesla:

• Tesla faced selling pressure after Q4 delivery figures fell short of consensus estimates, with declines ranging roughly from 1.4% to 3% depending on the closing price measure. The weakness in Tesla weighs on cyclically oriented consumer names in the premarket.

• Major mega-cap staples held ground:

• Nvidia managed a modest increase of 1.26% and helped stabilize the mega-cap tech segment. Apple and Microsoft were largely unchanged, hovering near their 50-day moving averages.

Technical snapshot of the Nasdaq 100

From a chart perspective, the Nasdaq 100 (cash) sits in a pronounced consolidation phase.

• Support levels:
• The immediate support zone sits around 25,086, the Friday low.

• A psychologically meaningful floor lies at 25,000. A break below could open the path toward the 50-day moving average.

• Resistance landmarks:

• The area around 25,600 acted as a barrier on Friday.

• A sustained move above this level would bring back attention to the region near 26,180, which sits close to the index’s peak levels.

• Momentum indicators:

• RSI and other momentum gauges hover in neutral territory, suggesting a tug-of-war between profit-taking and buyers on pullbacks rather than a decisive trend.

Macro backdrop and intraday focus

Markets are digesting geopolitical developments surrounding Venezuela. Oil prices have fluctuated but remained comparatively stable on balance, limiting near-term pressure on energy-intensive sectors. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) edged higher, which tends to weigh on internationally oriented technology earnings.

Attention in the U.S. session centers on the ISM Manufacturing PMI due at 16:00 CEST. A materially stronger-than-expected reading could raise inflation concerns, push long-term yields higher, and pressure growth stocks. Conversely, a moderate, balanced print would support the current optimism around AI-related investment.

For traders focused on near-term moves, the 25,086 to 25,597 range established on Friday remains the reference. A decisive breakout from this band could set the next directional cue for the Nasdaq 100.