Nasdaq 100 Approaches Year-End at Record Highs Amid Subdued Trading

NASDAQ 100 US6311011026

As 2025 enters its final trading week, the Nasdaq 100 finds itself in a curious position. The tech-heavy index is concluding a remarkable year with gains exceeding 22%, yet the mood on Monday morning was one of caution rather than celebration. Futures hovered near the flatline at 25,851 points, leaving market participants to ponder the potential for a traditional year-end surge.

Trading activity is predictably light in the holiday-shortened week. With numerous institutional investors having closed their books, the index moved within a narrow band between 25,830 and 25,875 points. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) held steady at a low 13.5, signaling muted near-term anxiety. However, this environment also carries a warning: in markets with limited liquidity, even modest orders can trigger outsized price swings.

Overnight, a surprisingly hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) introduced a headwind, pushing bond yields higher and creating a mixed session across Asian equities. Japan's Nikkei index declined, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to advance.

Pre-Market Moves and Friday's Sector Performance

Before the U.S. cash market opened, early indications pointed to selective strength. Nvidia shares edged higher in pre-market trading, supported by news of strategic licensing deals with AI startups such as Groq. Palantir extended its gains from the prior week, fueled by persistent demand for its artificial intelligence platforms.

Looking back at Friday's session, semiconductor stocks commanded attention. Micron Technology surged 3.8%, driven by robust sales forecasts for its AI memory chips. Intel and ASML followed with solid advances. On the downside, AppLovin and Arm Holdings retreated 1.8% and 1.1% respectively, as investors took profits following their strong annual performances.

Technical Landscape and Competing Assets

From a chart perspective, the index remains comfortably above its key moving averages. The immediate support level at 25,800 points has held so far; a decisive break below it could open the path toward 25,644. To the upside, resistance awaits at 25,900, followed by the psychologically significant 26,000 mark.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 55, indicating the index is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests room for movement in either direction, albeit without a clear immediate catalyst. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was stable at 4.13%, while the U.S. Dollar Index showed little movement.

Notably, precious metals are experiencing a parallel ascent. Silver prices reached new record highs overnight, surpassing $80 per ounce. Such flights to tangible assets could, over the medium term, divert capital away from technology equities.

The historical "Santa Claus Rally" period—statistically encompassing the last five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one—begins this Wednesday. Whether the prevailing thin liquidity presents an opportunity or a risk will be determined in the days ahead.