Mutares Swings to Positive EBITDA in Q1, Yet Shares Slip on Holding-Level Shortfall Ahead of SABIC Deal

Mutares posts operating EBITDA swing to €11.1M, but holding net loss of €0.9M weighs on shares. SABIC megadeal and exit pipeline seen as key catalysts ahead.

Munich-based turnaround investor Mutares posted a dramatic improvement in operational earnings during the first quarter of 2026 — but the market has taken little notice, with the stock still trading roughly 12% below its level at the start of the year.

Group revenue climbed by 10% to just under €1.68 billion, fueled largely by the Automotive and Infrastructure segments. More telling, however, was the swing in adjusted EBITDA: from a loss of €30.1 million in the year-ago period to a positive €11.1 million. Four of the company’s five segments are now profitable, marking a clear step forward in the restructuring of its portfolio.

Yet on the holding level — where Mutares actually books the gains from its buy-fix-sell model — the picture was less encouraging. A net loss of €0.9 million contrasted sharply with the prior-year quarter, when the partial exit of Steyr Motors contributed a one-time gain of €29.5 million. With no comparable large-scale disposals in Q1 2026, the holding-level result fell short of expectations, and that is precisely what has weighed on the share price.

The company’s management has made clear that exits are set to accelerate. Already in May, the sale of Polish bus operator Relobus was completed, and deals involving Kalzip, inTime and Peugeot Motocycles have either been signed or closed earlier this year. These transactions are designed to shore up holding-level income and finance new acquisitions.

The biggest catalyst on the horizon is the acquisition of SABIC’s Engineering Thermoplastics division — the largest deal in Mutares’ history. With an estimated annual revenue contribution of around €2 billion, the purchase represents a leap into a new scale for a firm traditionally focused on mid-sized restructuring cases. A smooth closing in the coming months is seen as critical for the second-half outlook.

Management has reaffirmed its full-year guidance: group revenue of €7.9?billion to €9.1?billion and a holding net profit between €165?million and €200?million. Longer term, the target remains annual growth of at least 25% in both revenue and holding profit through 2030.

Analysts at Sphene Capital see a compelling opportunity. With a “Buy” rating and a 36-month price target of €49.40 — up nearly 90% from the current level of around €26.40 — they argue that the stock is deeply undervalued. Analyst Peter Thilo Hasler points to the upcoming closings and exit pipeline as potential catalysts in the second quarter. The share currently trades about 9% below its 200-day moving average and well off the 52-week high of €36.75.

For the gap between operating momentum and market sentiment to close, Mutares needs to deliver on two fronts: flawless execution of the SABIC megadeal and a steady stream of exits in the months ahead. If the pieces fall into place, the holding-level earnings that investors are waiting for could finally start to materialize.