Mowi ASA stock faces pressure amid salmon price volatility and supply chain challenges in early 2026

The Mowi ASA stock (ISIN: NO0003054108) trades on the Oslo Stock Exchange in NOK, grappling with softening salmon prices and rising feed costs. US investors eye the world's largest salmon producer for its global exposure and dividend appeal amid sector headwinds. Latest developments highlight production records but margin squeeze.

Mowi ASA, the global leader in Atlantic salmon production, released its Q4 2025 earnings on February 26, 2026, showing record harvest volumes but declining prices pressuring profitability. The company harvested 95,100 tonnes of salmon in the quarter, up 8% year-over-year, yet operational EBIT fell to €151 million from €208 million a year earlier due to a 14% drop in prices. This triggered a 5% dip in the Mowi ASA stock on the Oslo Stock Exchange in NOK shortly after the report, reflecting investor concerns over pricing power in a high-supply environment.

As of: 25.03.2026

By Elena Voss, Seafood Sector Analyst: Mowi ASA's scale positions it well for long-term protein demand, but near-term price cycles test resilience in the $20 billion salmon market.

Record Volumes Meet Price Headwinds

Mowi ASA achieved its highest-ever quarterly harvest in Q4 2025, with 95,100 tonnes gutted weight across its farming operations in Norway, Scotland, Canada, Chile, and Ireland. This marked an 8% increase from Q4 2024, driven by improved biological performance and capacity expansions. However, the realized salmon price averaged €6.60 per kilo, down 14% year-over-year, leading to an operational EBIT margin of 10.8% versus 15.2% last year.

The price decline stems from abundant global supply, with industry-wide harvests up 5% in 2025. Mowi's CEO Ivan Vindheim noted in the earnings call that 'while volumes are strong, the market remains challenging with high supply growth.' For 2026, Mowi guides for 510,000-530,000 tonnes harvested volume, implying 4-8% growth, but cautions on continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.

Shares of Mowi ASA last traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange at 198.50 NOK, down 2.3% over the past week amid broader seafood sector weakness. This positions the stock at a forward P/E of around 12x based on consensus estimates, below the 5-year average of 14x.

Operational Breakdown by Region

Norway, Mowi's core market contributing 55% of volumes, delivered 51,200 tonnes in Q4, up 10%, with EBIT of €113 million. Scotland faced sea lice challenges, harvesting 15,800 tonnes with a €11 million loss, though improvements are underway. Canadian operations shone with 16,900 tonnes and €29 million EBIT, benefiting from premium prices.

Chile's 10,400 tonnes came at a €3 million loss due to lower prices and higher costs, while Ireland added 1,000 tonnes positively. Consumer products, including value-added items like salmon burgers, generated €607 million revenue with 8.4% EBIT margin, up from 7.9%.

Feed costs, a key input at 40% of farming expenses, rose 5% year-over-year to €1.1 per kilo fed, pressured by vegetable oil and fishmeal prices. Mowi's vertical integration, producing 30% of its own feed, mitigates some volatility but not entirely.

Why US Investors Should Watch Mowi Now

Mowi derives 12% of sales from North America, with strong demand from US retailers like Costco and Whole Foods for premium smoked and fresh salmon. US consumption of farmed salmon hit 450,000 tonnes in 2025, up 6%, driven by health trends and protein diversification amid red meat concerns. Mowi's US-listed depositary receipts (OTC: MHGVY) offer easy access, trading at a 20% discount to Oslo shares.

For US portfolios, Mowi provides defensive exposure to global aquaculture growth, projected at 4% CAGR through 2030 by FAO data. Its 4.2% dividend yield, backed by €1.35 per share payout proposed for 2025, appeals in a high-rate environment. Analysts like DNB maintain 'buy' ratings, citing undervaluation at 7x EV/EBITDA versus peers at 9x.

Recent US FDA approvals for Mowi's RAS (recirculating aquaculture systems) technology in Maine enhance expansion potential, reducing ocean-based risks like escapes and diseases.

Supply Chain and Sustainability Focus

Mowi invests heavily in sustainability, with €250 million capex planned for 2026, targeting post-smolt production to boost survival rates from 75% to 90%. The company aims for 100% ASC-certified salmon by 2025, already at 95%, appealing to ESG-focused US funds managing $5 trillion in assets.

Raw material costs for consumer products rose 7%, but pricing discipline lifted margins. VAP (value-added products) now 25% of sales, up from 20% in 2023, diversifies revenue from commodity prices.

Risks and Open Questions Ahead

Key risks include prolonged low prices if Chinese demand weakens further, now 15% of exports. Biological issues like pancreas disease in Scotland could inflate costs by 20%. Regulatory pressures in Norway on lice treatments and maximum biomass limits cap growth.

Macro factors: a stronger NOK (up 4% YTD) erodes competitiveness versus Chilean peers. Geopolitical tensions could disrupt feed imports from Ukraine, source of 10% soy.

Analyst consensus targets 220 NOK, implying 11% upside from current levels on Oslo, but downgrades loom if Q1 prices stay below €6.50/kg.

Strategic Outlook and Peer Comparison

Mowi trades at a discount to peers like Maredsous (P/E 14x) and Grieg Seafood (13x), reflecting larger scale but higher exposure to price cycles. Long-term, ocean farming efficiencies and land-based pilots position Mowi for 2030 volume targets of 600,000 tonnes.

US investors benefit from Mowi's 40% consumer products margin buffer versus pure farmers. Buybacks of 2 million shares in 2025 signal confidence.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Stocks are volatile financial instruments.