Momentum Accelerates as Rocket Lab Expands Defense Footprint on Multibillion SDA Deal

Rocket Lab USA enters 2026 with strong momentum, shifting from a niche launch-service provider toward a more substantial role in national defense infrastructure. Investors are weighing whether the market has fully priced in the company’s evolving position as a Prime Contractor for government programs.

Key catalyst: an $816 million U.S. SDA contract for 18 satellites
The latest lift for the company comes from an official order worth $816 million to design and build 18 satellites in the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 constellation. The spacecraft are intended to detect and track missile threats worldwide, including hypersonic systems, enhancing the United States’ ability to monitor space and aerial threats.

This award is more than a revenue boost. It formalizes a strategic shift from a pure launch service to becoming a full-fledged satellite designer and defense partner. The deal dwarfs the $515 million contract Rocket Lab secured at the end of 2023, signaling a growing government reliance on the company’s space-infrastructure capabilities.

Strategic shift and operating focus
Concurrent with the SDA win, the company continues to advance its Neutron launcher program. Management targets the first flight of Neutron in 2026. While the timeline has moved back from the original 2025 target, the market has largely accepted the adjustment as part of the program’s development.

The Electron program remains a steady contributor, delivering reliability through more than 20 successful launches in 2025. This has helped sustain cash flow as Rocket Lab scales up the capital-intensive Neutron program and its Virginia-based production footprint.

Valuation, momentum, and near-term risk
Rocket Lab’s stock has surged, rising more than 50% over the past 30 days. The company sits with a market capitalization around $40.6 billion, reflecting investors’ optimism about the trajectory of upcoming projects and the SDA program. A technical gauge also points to overbought conditions, with an RSI of 85. The primary near-term risk centers on execution: the Neutron production ramp at the Virginia facility must proceed without further expensive delays.

January 2026 focus for investors
As the calendar turns to 2026, investors will be closely watching two lines of progress. First, any updates on the Neutron launch window will be pivotal in assessing the feasibility and timing of the program’s milestones. Second, progress on integrating the SDA satellite constellation will be critical to determine whether the company can meet or exceed the stringent operational expectations that come with the new Prime Contractor role.