Micron Stock Gains Momentum as HBM4 Progress and AI Memory Demand Strengthen Appeal

Micron Technology is riding a confluence of favorable factors: a constructive price move, an explicit update on HBM4 production, and mounting expectations for the memory market driven by AI workloads. The chatter over whether Micron could lag in HBM delivery?technically and in manufacturing?has been met with a direct rebuttal from management.

In a move that underscored improving sentiment, Micron?s stock rose by almost 10% on Wednesday, closing at $410.34. The rally extended into Thursday, aiding the stock even as broader markets stalled.

CFO?s clarification on HBM4 status

On Thursday, CFO Mark Murphy pushed back against reports describing Micron as mapping out HBM4 delivery carelessly. He stressed that HBM4 is already in serial production at scale. Moreover, the ramp-up to customer deliveries in the first quarter has been successful, and notably, one quarter earlier than initially anticipated.

The market responded positively to the clarification: the shares rose by roughly $11 on Thursday, despite the general slide in major indices. The commentary also highlighted that Micron?s HBM capacity for fiscal year 2026 is already fully booked, illustrating tight supply conditions in AI-accelerated memory applications.

Analyst price targets rise on DRAM pricing signals

Over the past days, several major banks have adjusted their price targets higher, citing firmer DRAM pricing and supply constraints:

• Morgan Stanley: $450 (up from $350)
• Deutsche Bank: $500 (up from $300)
• UBS: $450 (down slightly from $400)
• Mizuho: $480 (new target)

A Morgan Stanley strategist tied the uplift to strengthening DDR5 spot prices and tight supplies. He noted DDR5 spot pricing has risen roughly 30% year-to-date, with current spot prices sitting around 130% above January contract levels.

Industry demand signals and HBM market trajectory

Samsung?s leadership, represented by CTO Song Jai-hyuk, said at Semicon Korea 2026 that AI-driven infrastructure demand should stay robust at least through 2027. Samsung is also pushing ahead with mass production of HBM4 chips, a field where Micron directly competes. Lenovo added its own note, indicating memory prices rose about 40% to 50% in the last quarter and could potentially double in the current quarter.

The broader market narrative remains bullish for HBM, with forecasts pointing to a substantial expansion: the HBM market is expected to grow from around $35 billion in 2025 to as much as $100 billion by 2028.

Market share context and the big question

Within the DRAM landscape, Micron?s share sits at about 25.7%, trailing SK hynix at 33.2% and Samsung at 32.6% (TrendForce). In the HBM segment, Micron?s share is pegged at roughly 11%, with SK hynix at 53% and Samsung at 35%. The crucial question going forward is whether Micron can translate its HBM4 production lead into meaningful upticks in market share.

Long-term investment plans and M&A activity

Looking ahead, Micron is prepared to sustain sizable capital outlays. The company has a stated plan involving a $100 billion commitment to a megafab project in New York, alongside other initiatives in Singapore and Taiwan. In a separate strategic move, Micron announced its intention to acquire Powerchip?s P5 fabrication site in Taiwan for $1.8 billion in cash, with a closing expected by the second quarter of 2026.