Micron's Virginia Bet Pays Off as DRAM Pricing Dynamics Fuel Record Run

Biden admin delays chip tariffs as Micron reports soaring demand, 40% DRAM price jump, and $2B Virginia plant expansion. Analysts bullish with 30 of 39 rating buy.

The Biden administration's trade representative walked into Micron's Manassas plant this week and delivered a message investors had been waiting for: chip tariffs are not coming immediately. Jamieson Greer called tariffs a "very important tool" to be deployed at the "right time and in the right amount," but stopped short of imposing them. For Micron, that means planning certainty on one front — even as the real story unfolds on the production line.

Demand Outstrips Supply by a Wide Margin

Micron can currently fulfill only 50 to 66 percent of customer orders. That structural shortage is compounding a powerful price cycle. DRAM prices surged around 40 percent in the fiscal second quarter alone, and Gartner sees them climbing another 125 percent by 2026. Those numbers are turning heads on Wall Street. Citigroup raised its price target to $840, arguing DRAM prices could nearly triple next year. Melius Research went further, setting a $1,100 target. The wider analyst community remains more cautious — the average 12-month target sits at $518, well below the current level — but the bulls are dominating the sentiment tally: out of 39 analysts, 30 rate Micron a buy and five a strong buy, with only four on hold.

Earnings Tell the Story Behind the Rally

The stock closed Friday at €647, shedding 1.36 percent on the day but still up more than 55 percent over the past month and roughly 140 percent since the start of the year. That puts the shares nearly 687 percent above their 52-week low of €82.18. The revenue engine behind that move is running hot. Micron reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $23.86 billion — more than double the prior quarter and nearly triple the year-ago figure. Non-GAAP earnings per share hit $12.20, up from $1.56 last year. For the current quarter, management expects revenue around $33.5 billion and EPS of $19.15. Full-year estimates from analysts range as high as $58.46 per share.

Manassas Moves from Expansion to Production

Micron has now started producing its most advanced memory technology — 1-alpha DRAM — at the expanded Manassas, Virginia facility. The investment exceeds $2 billion and has created over 3,100 direct jobs. The plant's DDR4 wafer capacity will quadruple once qualified volume production begins by the end of 2026. The project is part of a broader $200 billion US investment plan that also includes sites in Idaho and New York. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has set a clear goal: lift the share of US-based DRAM production from 10 percent to 40 percent. The chips coming out of Manassas are destined for long-cycle markets — automotive, defense, aerospace, and medical devices — where customers are less sensitive to short-term price swings.

Technical Picture Shows Cooling After a Historic Run

Despite the recent pullback, the stock still trades well above all key moving averages. The 50-day average sits at €443, while the current price is about 46 percent above that level. The relative strength index has dropped to 35.7, indicating the momentum has cooled without breaking the underlying uptrend. The next resistance is near the weekly high of roughly $780, with first support at the five-day average. Whether that level holds depends on whether the DRAM pricing expectations for 2026 and 2027 are confirmed by market data. The next major checkpoint comes June 24, when Micron reports third-quarter results — a number that will test both the production ramp and the pricing thesis.