Micron's Upcoming Earnings: A Crucial Test for AI-Driven Growth

Micron's Q2 earnings preview: Record revenue guidance, sold-out HBM for 2026, and a $200B expansion highlight its central role in the AI hardware surge.

All eyes are on Micron Technology as it approaches a pivotal financial update. The memory chip giant's fortunes are increasingly tied to a single, powerful market force: the insatiable demand for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. With its next quarterly report on the horizon, investors are scrutinizing the company's trajectory while also monitoring signals from key industry players like Nvidia.

A High Bar to Clear

The company is scheduled to release its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 on Wednesday, March 18, accompanied by a live teleconference. Expectations are running high following an exceptionally strong previous quarter.

In December, for Q1, Micron posted record revenue of $13.64 billion, representing a year-over-year surge of 57%. Its non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $4.78. For the upcoming Q2, management itself has set ambitious guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $18.70 billion (±$0.4 billion), a non-GAAP gross margin of 68% (±1%), and a non-GAAP EPS of $8.42 (±$0.20). This forward-looking guidance has significantly raised the stakes for the March announcement.

The Central Role of High-Bandwidth Memory

The current market dynamics are being fueled primarily by High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a specialized form of DRAM essential for AI accelerators and GPUs. Micron is benefiting from a potent combination of robust demand and a constrained supply environment.

A particularly striking detail from the Q1 disclosures is that Micron's HBM production for the entire 2026 calendar year is already sold out, secured through pre-arranged price and volume agreements. Furthermore, company leadership suggests the total addressable market for HBM could expand from roughly $35 billion in 2025 to about $100 billion by 2028, a faster growth rate than earlier projections.

This supply crunch is exacerbated by a technical factor: reports indicate that producing HBM requires approximately three times more wafer capacity than standard DRAM. This pulls production resources away from conventional memory segments, creating upward pressure on prices across the entire market. This environment has led to expectations for significantly higher memory prices (for both DRAM and NAND) in early 2026.

Massive Expansion and Industry Sentiment

In response to this demand, Micron is accelerating a substantial manufacturing build-out. The company is embarking on a U.S. production initiative valued at a minimum of $200 billion, with major projects in Idaho and New York. This is complemented by expansion in Asia, including the recent launch of a new fabrication facility in Singapore and plans for the Tongluo site alongside a strategic partnership with PSMC.

Capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 is now budgeted at around $20 billion, an increase over prior plans, with a focus on expanding HBM capacity and developing the next-generation DRAM technology ("1-gamma").

The recent focus on Nvidia underscores its role as a major HBM consumer. Nvidia's own quarterly results are widely viewed as a barometer for the health of the entire AI supply chain, prompting investors to adjust their positions ahead of its report.

This positive industry momentum is reflected in Micron's share price, which closed at €363.40 on Wednesday. This places the stock merely 2.1% below its 52-week high recorded in early February. The critical question now is whether Micron will confirm its own ambitious Q2 forecast on March 18 and whether the ongoing HBM shortage will continue to act as a primary driver for memory pricing.