Micron's Rollercoaster Week: All-Time High, Analyst Upgrade, and a Broadcom-Fueled Pullback

Micron hits all-time high but drops 7% after Broadcom's cautious AI outlook. Morgan Stanley doubles target to $1,050; June 24 earnings report key.

Micron Technology capped a historic run with a fresh all-time high midweek, only to see the gains evaporate within 48 hours as a cautious outlook from Broadcom sent shockwaves through the semiconductor sector. The memory-chip maker now faces the paradox of carrying record revenue guidance while its stock is under pressure — a test that will culminate in its June 24 earnings report.

Morgan Stanley doubled its price target on Micron to $1,050 from $520 on Wednesday, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. Analyst Joseph Moore argued that DRAM has become the critical bottleneck in the AI infrastructure buildout, with supply constraints likely to persist "two to three years or longer." The bank models a 40% sequential price increase for DRAM in the May-ended quarter, followed by a further 15% in the August quarter. As a result, Morgan Stanley boosted its 2027 earnings-per-share forecasts by 48% and sees additional upside from HBM contract renegotiations late next year and a $50 billion share buyback program expected in fiscal 2027 and 2028. Micron had largely halted repurchases due to CHIPS Act conditions.

That bullish backdrop was overshadowed by news from Broadcom, which projected third-quarter AI chip revenue of $16 billion — missing the consensus estimate of $17.2 billion. Broadcom also declined to raise its 2026 AI semiconductor outlook, a signal that weighed heavily on the sector. Micron, a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators, took a direct hit. The shares, which had climbed to nearly $1,089, slipped back below $1,000 and closed at €859.50 on Thursday, down more than 7% on the day. The relative strength index sits at 70, a level technicians consider overbought. Even after the pullback, the stock has still gained roughly 219% over the past 12 months.

Separately, insider trading filings revealed that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold about 37,400 shares on May 29 at an average price of roughly $960, netting close to $36 million. The sale was executed under a pre-arranged trading plan established in January. Mehrotra continues to hold approximately 387,000 shares directly, valued at over $370 million at current prices. The disposal coincided with the stock hovering near its all-time high but was not tied to the subsequent sector weakness.

The real catalyst arrives June 24, when Micron reports fiscal third-quarter results. Management has guided for quarterly revenue of $33.5 billion — a sum that exceeds the company's full-year revenue for every fiscal year through 2024. Non-GAAP earnings per share are forecast at $19.15, with gross margins projected around 81%. That would mark a dramatic acceleration from the prior quarter, which delivered $23.86 billion in revenue and GAAP net income of $13.79 billion. Analysts will be watching closely for confirmation that HBM revenue — particularly for the next-generation HBM4 — is ramping as quickly as expected.

Looking ahead, Micron's market capitalization has crossed the $1 trillion threshold. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, the stock trades at roughly 16 times fiscal 2026 estimates — a multiple that compresses to below 9 when measured against fiscal 2027 projections. The bull case rests on this compressed valuation and on the structural shift in how hyperscalers treat memory: no longer a commodity, but a strategic resource. Micron says its entire HBM capacity for 2026, including HBM4, is already under contract. Whether the market rewards that positioning on June 24 depends on whether the company can exceed, not just meet, its own extraordinary guidance. Some analysts have set price targets as high as $1,750.