Micron’s Relentless Rally: How a Supply Squeeze and US Production Pivot Are Driving Split Chatter

Micron Technology soars as HBM4 capacity is sold out, multi-year contracts stabilize demand, and US tariff policy boosts domestic production. Revenue jumps 196% YoY.

The stars have aligned for Micron Technology in ways few memory-chip investors have ever seen. A near-total sell-out of next-generation HBM4 capacity, multi-year customer contracts, and a strategic pivot to expand domestic chip production have combined to send the stock soaring. Trading at €647, the shares have nearly octupled from the 52-week low of €82, and gained over 55% in the past 30 days alone. Beneath the surface, a deeper story is unfolding: structural demand is outstripping supply by a wide margin, and Washington’s tariff policy is creating a favourable backdrop for US-based manufacturers.

The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, made it clear during a ceremony at Micron’s expanded Manassas plant in Virginia that semiconductor tariffs are not imminent. They remain a “very important tool” to be deployed at the “right time and in the right amount.” For Micron, that buys planning certainty while putting pressure on rivals like Samsung and SK Hynix to accelerate their own US production. The administration’s stated goal is to concentrate roughly half of global chip fabrication on American soil within two to three years. Micron is already leading that charge: the company just completed a more than $2 billion expansion of its 1-Alpha DRAM line in Manassas, quadrupling capacity for DDR4 wafers. It is part of a national investment plan exceeding $200 billion, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra targeting an increase in US-based DRAM output from 10% to 40%.

Yet the real catalyst for Micron’s rally is the yawning gap between demand and supply. The company can currently fulfill only 50% to 66% of customer orders, a structural shortfall that is unlikely to ease soon. DRAM prices climbed roughly 40% in the second quarter alone, and Gartner forecasts a further rise of up to 125% for 2026. Multi-year contracts spanning three to five years – a departure from the traditional quarterly or annual deals – are smoothing out the boom-and-bust cycles that have historically plagued the memory sector. Micron’s entire HBM4 production for 2026 is already under contract.

The financial numbers reflect this pricing power. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron reported revenue of $23.86 billion, a 196% jump year over year. The company has posted four consecutive record quarters. For the third quarter, it guides for $33.6 billion in sales and earnings per share of $19.34. Full-year EPS could reach as high as $58.46, according to analyst estimates. Chief Financial Officer Manish Bhatta recently told a JPMorgan conference that the balance sheet is the strongest it has ever been, and all three major rating agencies have upgraded Micron this year. Free cash flow is expected to hit another record in Q3.

All this has reignited speculation about a stock split – Micron’s first in 26 years. The last 2:1 split occurred in May 2000, and the company’s Canadian depositary receipts underwent a 5:1 split in March 2026. While a split would not change the company’s market value, it would lower the per-share price and make the stock more accessible to retail investors. No official announcement has been made, but many US companies consider a split when the share price approaches $1,000. In Micron’s case, the current price in US dollars is around $730 (€647 converted at the day’s rate), though the 52-week high of €685 is only about 5% away. Technical support sits at $732 (€615) with a harder floor at $571, and the 30-day annualised volatility of 86% has pushed the relative strength index to a seemingly oversold 35.7.

Analyst opinions remain split. The average target from S&P Global’s surveyed analysts stands at $613, below the current price. But Citigroup set a target of $840 on May 19, and Melius Research has gone as high as $1,100. Mizuho recently lifted its target from $740 to $800. On a forward P/E of 12.9, Micron trades at roughly half the sector average of 25.9, a valuation that even the sceptics find hard to ignore.

The next major test comes on June 24, when Micron reports its third-quarter results. With capacity expansions continuing and demand still outpacing supply, the numbers could well fuel another leg of the rally – and perhaps tip the scales on that long-awaited stock split.