Micron’s HBM4 Is Already Sold Out for 2026 — and the Stock Is Still Finding Buyers

Micron’s HBM4 is sold out for 2025, with 2027 deals underway. DA Davidson’s $1,000 target leads bullish analyst consensus as AI demand reshapes memory cycles.

The memory chip maker has kicked off mass production of its next-generation HBM4 this month, and every single unit earmarked for the year has already been spoken for. Negotiations for 2027 deliveries are already underway, underscoring a demand dynamic that has Wall Street reaching for ever-higher price targets.

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria has slapped a $1,000 price target on Micron — the most aggressive call on the Street — arguing that artificial intelligence has fundamentally broken the industry’s old boom-bust cycle. His thesis: each new wave of compute infrastructure creates applications that didn’t previously exist, generating a self-reinforcing demand loop that pushes the ceiling higher with every cycle. The $1,000 target is based on 10 times estimated fiscal 2030 earnings per share of $139, discounted back three years. That blows past the previous high-water mark of $700 set by Melius Research just a day earlier.

The broader analyst community is largely on board. Of the 43 analysts covering Micron, 38 rate it a buy, with a consensus target hovering around $534. The stock closed Wednesday at €446, up roughly 4.5% on the session and within striking distance of its 52-week high of €446.95. Year-to-date, shares have gained about 66%, while the 12-month return exceeds 550%.

A Catalyst From Across the Storage Sector

Seagate Technology added fuel to the fire. The hard-drive maker reported first-calendar-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.11 billion — a 44% year-over-year jump — and beat earnings-per-share estimates by more than 17%. The message was unmistakable: anyone selling storage is riding the AI spending wave. The read-through for Micron was immediate and positive.

That momentum helped erase the sting from a Wall Street Journal report earlier this week suggesting OpenAI’s chip spending may be inflated. The dip that followed now looks like a buying opportunity in hindsight.

HBM4’s Technical Leap and Pricing Power

The new HBM4 architecture delivers more than 50% higher bandwidth than its predecessor, HBM3E, alongside a roughly 20% improvement in energy efficiency — a critical selling point for hyperscale data centers grappling with surging electricity costs. The supply constraints are structural: configurations like 12-layer HBM3E and HBM4 consume significantly more wafer capacity than conventional DDR5 memory, giving Micron considerable pricing leverage. The company’s EBITDA margin is tracking toward 60% in the current fiscal year.

Erste Group Bank has raised its earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 following the production ramp. Analysts now project full-year earnings of $57.71 per share, with early fiscal 2027 forecasts at $97.77, underpinned by expectations that AI infrastructure spending will sustain DRAM and NAND demand through the second half of the year.

The Bear Case Hasn’t Disappeared

Skeptics still have ammunition. Memory remains a cyclical, capital-intensive business, and SK Hynix and Samsung are formidable competitors in the high-bandwidth memory market. If Micron and its rivals add significant HBM capacity over the next few years, today’s elevated prices could come under pressure.

But the numbers tell a powerful story for now. In the first fiscal quarter of 2026, Micron posted adjusted earnings of $4.78 per share on revenue of $13.64 billion — a 57% year-over-year increase. Management has guided for second-quarter revenue of $18.7 billion and adjusted earnings of $8.42 per share. Order books reportedly extend into 2027, with hyperscalers increasingly signing multi-year contracts to lock in supply — a sign that demand is not just loud but durable.

Valuation Still Looks Manageable

Despite the rally, the stock doesn’t appear overheated. The forward price-to-earnings ratio based on fiscal 2026 estimates sits at roughly 8.7 — modest for a company with this growth trajectory. The balance sheet is solid: a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 and a current ratio of 2.90 signal financial stability.

The next major data point comes on June 24, 2026, when Micron reports third-fiscal-quarter results. After the first-quarter revenue print of $13.64 billion, expectations for the upcoming earnings season are running high.