Micron’s HBM4 Capacity Sold Out Through 2026, Yet the Stock Just Lost 15% – Here’s What June 24 Could Change

Micron shares fell 15% after Broadcom's cautious AI outlook, but strong HBM4 demand, 263% revenue growth guidance signal potential rebound.

Broadcom’s cautious AI chip outlook sent ripples across the semiconductor landscape on June 4, but the shockwave that hit Micron was amplified by something else entirely. On the same day, the US Labor Department reported 172,000 new nonfarm payrolls for May – more than double the 80,000 economists had penciled in. That double blow erased roughly $1.3 trillion in market value from global chipmakers within days, and Micron’s shares tumbled 15% in a single week.

The stock closed on Friday at €755.00, a 19.57% retreat from its 52-week high of €938.70 set in early June. The selloff was sector-wide, not company-specific. Broadcom itself lost more than 12% after its earnings failed to lift its full-year AI revenue forecast, and memory names were swept up in the broader re-rating. For Micron, the narrative remains unusually strong on the operational front – which makes the price action all the more telling.

High Bandwidth Memory is the engine behind that strength. Micron has secured official certification as an HBM4 supplier for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera-Rubin platform, putting it at the front of the race for next-generation AI accelerators. The company’s entire HBM production for the remainder of fiscal 2026 is already tied up under long-term contracts. Capacity constraints are so acute that Micron can currently serve only about two-thirds of demand. That scarcity is feeding directly into pricing power: DRAM prices are expected to rise 58% to 63% in the second quarter of 2026.

Those numbers are a far cry from the stock’s recent trajectory. The GAAP net income for the last reported quarter hit $13.79 billion, while revenue more than doubled sequentially to $23.86 billion and nearly tripled from the $8.05 billion reported a year earlier. For the current quarter, management guided for record revenue of $33.5 billion (with a $750 million range), a gross margin of approximately 81%, and adjusted earnings per share of $19.15. Analysts have already edged their expectations slightly higher, now forecasting around $33.8 billion in revenue – a 263% year-over-year jump.

The real inflection point, however, is the guidance for the following quarter. If Micron delivers an outlook above $40 billion in revenue – the consensus is currently near $39.6 billion – it would provide fresh ammunition for the bull case. The June 24 earnings report will be the first real test of whether the selloff was a macro-driven overreaction or the start of a fundamental reassessment.

Investor anxiety is understandable given the valuation gap. The average analyst price target sits at €641.72, some 15% below the current share price of €755.00. That discrepancy suggests that even the optimists on the Street have been caught off guard by the speed of Micron’s rally. Morgan Stanley more than doubled its price target after the May spike in DRAM prices, indicating that consensus models may be playing catch-up with a profit trajectory that is moving faster than many projections.

Technically, the pullback looks more like a reset than a breakdown. The relative strength index at 56.2 indicates the stock has cooled from overbought territory into a neutral zone. Micron still trades 41.53% above its short-term moving average and 142.71% above its 200-day moving average, which stands at €311 – meaning the structural uptrend remains intact. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is still up 180.67%, and over the past month it has gained 19.18%.

For the longer-term thesis to hold, the June 24 report needs to confirm not just current momentum but the durability of demand beyond the current cycle. Micron has outlined capacity expansion plans worth roughly $200 billion, with capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 expected to exceed $25 billion and to rise further the following year. AI training and inference are forecast to account for more than 55% of HBM demand by then, underpinning the structural argument.

Yet the cyclical risk remains. Memory cycles eventually turn, and capacity additions tend to follow high prices with a lag. SK Hynix, Micron’s South Korean rival, still leads in HBM and holds a strong position on Nvidia’s key chip platforms. If Micron fails to deliver a quarterly outlook above $40 billion on June 24, the recent selloff could prove to have been a prescient warning rather than a temporary setback. Until then, the stock is caught between a sold-out production pipeline and a macro environment that refuses to cooperate.