Micron’s HBM Windfall Under Attack: Cartel Claims and a Rival’s Nasdaq Arrival

Micron shares drop 13% amid collusion lawsuit and SK Hynix's US listing; analysts see 51% upside despite structural DRAM squeeze.

The euphoria that propelled Micron Technology more than 220% higher this year is suddenly colliding with two powerful headwinds. A class-action lawsuit accusing the DRAM oligopoly of colluding to starve the market of standard memory chips landed in late June, while South Korean rival SK Hynix has begun the process of listing American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq. The twin pressures have knocked Micron shares down more than 13% in the past week, with the stock now trading at €867.80—roughly 21% below its 52-week high of €1,103.80 reached on June 25.

The cartel complaint, filed at the end of June 2026, alleges that Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix—which together control over 95% of global DRAM production—are deliberately reducing output of conventional memory chips to free up capacity for far more profitable High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) used in artificial intelligence systems. HBM chips generate three to five times more revenue per wafer than standard DDR5, and the economics have prompted a radical factory re-tooling across the industry. But the side effect is a tightening supply of basic DRAM for smartphones and laptops, driving memory module costs to about a fifth of a notebook’s total hardware bill—nearly double the share from the first half of the year. Micron management itself has guided that the market will remain tight well beyond 2026.

The lawsuit revives memories of the early 2000s, when the same trio paid billions in penalties for similar price-fixing schemes. So far, the risk has barely registered in analysts’ bullish HBM forecasts. The consensus price target on Micron stands at €1,302.00, implying roughly 51% upside from current levels, and the company’s market capitalization has swelled to €965.37 billion.

The more immediate short-term catalyst, however, is the nascent US listing of SK Hynix. The company launched a share sale on Monday of up to 17.79 million new depositary receipts—about 2.5% of its outstanding stock—with a subscription and payment period running until July 14 and the ADRs expected to begin trading on July 29. SK Hynix commands roughly 60% of the HBM market, and the listing gives US investors direct dollar-denominated access to the segment leader. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 trails Micron’s 7.0, and many observers view the move as an attempt to close that valuation gap.

Bullish observers argue that the structural shortage of DRAM capacity is broad enough to support both companies. Micron’s contractual HBM supply positions are locked in, and SK Hynix itself frames its Nasdaq entry as a valuation correction rather than a competitive attack. If Micron’s pricing power holds, stabilization near current levels appears plausible. The stock’s decline has already brought its relative strength index to a neutral 49.0, and at €867.80 it trades 12.54% above its 50-day moving average of €771.13. The 200-day average stands at €395.07, meaning the shares are still 119% above that long-term trendline—a vivid illustration of how radically the market has revalued the company.

The bear case centers on capital rotation. Once SK Hynix ADRs are freely tradable during US hours, they may qualify for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, triggering passive inflows from ETFs such as the Invesco QQQ Trust—flows that could come partly at Micron’s expense. A broader systemic risk also looms: Samsung and SK Hynix together represent more than 40% of South Korea’s Kospi index, amplifying vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions or a cooling of data-center investment. With 30-day annualized volatility above 110%, sharp swings in either direction remain the norm.

The next concrete milestones are the subscription deadline on July 14 and the start of ADR trading on July 29. Those events will provide the clearest test of whether Micron’s valuation premium can withstand the arrival of a larger, now directly accessible competitor. Should the SK Hynix listing proceed smoothly and begin drawing capital away, further downside toward the 50-day moving average at €771.13—or even the 100-day line near €563.31—cannot be ruled out. Yet the underlying demand for AI memory appears intact: Micron’s year-to-date gain of 222.60% and its twelve-month surge of 747.96% reflect a sector-wide re-rating that no single competitive maneuver is likely to reverse overnight.