Micron Faces Intensifying Competition in High-Bandwidth Memory Race

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Shares of memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology have declined for two consecutive trading sessions, shedding approximately 3% on both Monday and Tuesday. This downturn follows reports that its South Korean rival, Samsung Electronics, is accelerating its timeline for mass production of next-generation HBM4 memory chips, potentially securing a critical advantage in the lucrative artificial intelligence hardware market.

According to reports from the Yonhap News Agency, Samsung has now received quality certification from Nvidia and has secured orders to supply HBM4 chips for Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin AI accelerator platform. This development, with mass production reportedly beginning this month, places competitive pressure on Micron. Analysis from research firm SemiAnalysis, cited by Business Korea, suggests Micron may be excluded from Nvidia's initial list of HBM4 suppliers. The firm indicates the Idaho-based company has not met the performance standards set by Nvidia for this advanced memory.

The competitive landscape for HBM4 supply is crystallizing. SemiAnalysis estimates that for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, SK Hynix will capture 70% of the supply volume, with Samsung taking the remaining 30%. Nvidia raised its data transfer speed requirements for HBM4 in the third quarter of 2025 to over 11 gigabits per second. Industry sources indicate Micron has been unable to achieve this benchmark, potentially transforming what was anticipated as a three-way contest into a duopoly dominated by the two Korean chipmakers, which could strengthen their hand in price negotiations.

Divergent Analyst Views on Micron's Prospects

Despite the recent share price weakness, some analysts maintain a positive outlook. Deutsche Bank pointed to tight DRAM inventories coupled with robust HBM demand as favorable conditions for Micron. However, analyst Melissa Weathers also cautioned that additional supply from competitors could exert downward pressure on pricing.

Contrasting views have emerged from other quarters. Mizuho Securities explicitly challenged reports of Micron's exclusion, labeling the assumption that the company would fall out of Nvidia's HBM4 supply chain as "foolish." The investment bank argued that Nvidia has a vested interest in diversifying its supplier base. Furthermore, Micron management has previously refuted performance shortfall allegations in discussions with analysts.

A Pause Following a Meteoric Rise

This recent setback comes after an extraordinary period of growth for Micron stock, which had surged roughly 300% over the past twelve months. This rally was fueled by soaring demand for high-performance memory in AI data centers. The company's fiscal 2025 revenue reached $37.38 billion, a significant increase from $25.11 billion the previous year, with HBM chips contributing approximately $5.6 billion.

The HBM market continues to represent a major growth avenue. TrendForce projects that AI data centers will account for an estimated 70% of global HBM production by 2026. Separately, Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts the total market could expand from $4 billion in 2023 to $130 billion by 2030.

Micron has already sold out its HBM production capacity for 2026 and has announced plans for $20 billion in investments to expand output. New fabrication facilities in the United States are scheduled to come online in 2027, 2028, and 2030.

Company executives are scheduled to participate today in the Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference in New York. Market participants will be listening for any new commentary on Micron's competitive positioning and its HBM technology roadmap.