Metaplanet Shares Retreat as Key Funding Threshold Looms

Metaplanet JP3481200008

After a powerful surge in January, Metaplanet's stock has encountered significant selling pressure. The share price has now declined by more than 15% from its interim peak recorded on January 14th. This downturn presents a challenge for the firm, recognized as Asia's largest publicly-listed corporate holder of Bitcoin, particularly concerning a crucial warrant program designed to fund further cryptocurrency acquisitions.

Despite the recent price weakness, Metaplanet continues to trade at a premium relative to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Data from CoinGecko indicates a market capitalization to net asset value (mNAV) ratio of approximately 1.37. This means the equity is valued significantly higher than the underlying Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

For context, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) trades at an mNAV of 0.93, placing its market value below its Bitcoin assets. Metaplanet's premium suggests that potential future equity fundraising could remain accretive on paper, as shares are issued above the net asset value per share.

This financial structure has already attracted institutional attention. The Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund increased its stake by 11% between November and December 2025, from 14.12 million to 15.64 million shares.

Sharp Reversal Follows 90% Advance

Trading in recent weeks has been characterized by extreme volatility. Starting from 440 yen in late December, the stock climbed to 605 yen by January 14th—a gain of roughly 90% from the December lows. A substantial portion of that upward move has now been erased.

Key price levels from the recent activity include:
* December 29: Rally commencement at 440 yen
* January 14: Interim high of 605 yen (a single-day gain of about 15%)
* January 22: Closing price of 510 yen (a 5.7% drop from 541 yen)
* January 23: Closing price of 503 yen (a further daily decline)

The correction has pushed the share price decisively below the 637 yen mark, a critical level for activating the company's warrant program.

Warrant Program Temporarily Stalled

The recent share price weakness has direct implications for Metaplanet's Bitcoin strategy. The terms of the "moving strike" warrant Series 23, issued to the EVO Fund in December 2025, set a lower exercise price of 637 yen. This series only becomes effective if the share price trades above that threshold.

The program's key parameters are:
* Up to 105 million new shares from Series 23 upon reaching 637 yen
* An additional 105 million shares from Series 24 upon reaching 777 yen
* Proceeds are intended primarily to facilitate additional Bitcoin purchases

As long as the share price remains below 637 yen, this financing mechanism is dormant, potentially slowing the pace of further Bitcoin accumulation.

Bitcoin Holdings and Ambitious Targets

Metaplanet's current balance sheet holds 35,102 Bitcoin, ranking it among the world's largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency. Based on this position, the company reported a Bitcoin-related return of 568.2% for 2025. Revenue from yield-generating activities is estimated at 8.58 billion yen, exceeding prior forecasts.

The most recent purchase occurred on December 30, 2025, with the acquisition of 4,279 Bitcoin. The company's stated goal is ambitious: to build a holding of 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027, equivalent to approximately 1% of the total supply. In this context, reactivating the warrant programs remains a central component of the growth strategy.

February Quarterly Report in Focus

The upcoming quarterly results, scheduled for February 10th, are likely to spotlight several key areas:
* Performance of Bitcoin-derived income from put option strategies
* Progress toward the goal of accumulating 210,000 Bitcoin
* Details on the completed issuance of preferred shares totaling 21.25 billion yen
* Current developments in the Web3 advisory business

Currently, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 14, with a market capitalization around 595 billion yen. Its trading range over the past twelve months—from 291 to 1,930 yen—highlights the equity's significant volatility. The forthcoming financials and strategic updates will serve as an important gauge of how solidly Metaplanet can financially support its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition plan.