Metaplanet Shares Face Pressure Amid Bitcoin Strategy Concerns

Metaplanet JP3481200008

After a strong January rally, Metaplanet's stock is experiencing renewed selling pressure. Trading at 510 yen, the price now sits more than 15% below its interim peak of 605 yen reached on January 14. Market attention is focused on whether this decline could impact the company's planned strategy to fund additional Bitcoin purchases through capital measures.

On the institutional front, activity is notable. Between November and December 2025, the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund increased its stake by 11%, from 14.12 million to 15.64 million shares. This adjustment, driven by index tracking rules, signals Metaplanet's growing weight within global benchmarks. Furthermore, Norway's sovereign wealth fund has publicly expressed support for the company's Bitcoin strategy ahead of shareholder votes, indicating approval from large, long-term investors.

The company is scheduled to release its next quarterly report on February 10. For 2025, Metaplanet has already reported a Bitcoin return of 568% and revenue from income-generating activities of an estimated 8.58 billion yen, surpassing earlier forecasts.

Valuation Premium Provides Strategic Edge

Despite the recent pullback, Metaplanet exhibits a unique characteristic compared to other publicly traded Bitcoin holders. Its shares trade at a multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) of 1.37. This premium means the market values the company's equity significantly above the pure worth of its underlying Bitcoin holdings.

The situation for competitors is markedly different. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) trades at an mNAV of 0.93, below the value of its Bitcoin portfolio. Semler Scientific's mNAV is even lower at 0.88. Trading at such discounts means that issuing new shares would more heavily dilute existing shareholders. In contrast, Metaplanet's valuation premium provides it with structurally greater flexibility for equity-based fundraising.

Funding Mechanism Hinges on Key Price Levels

The current downturn has erased a substantial portion of recent gains. Prior to this, the stock had surged approximately 90% from its December lows.

Specific price levels are crucial for financing further Bitcoin acquisitions, as they are tied to option rights:
* Current Share Price: 510 yen (down 0.97%)
* 52-Week Range: 291 to 1,930 yen
* Distance to First Trigger: Approximately 25% below 637 yen
* Market Capitalization: Around 595 billion yen

The 23rd series of "moving strike warrants" from the EVO Fund remains locked while the price stays below 637 yen. Above that level, Metaplanet could issue up to 105 million new shares to acquire more Bitcoin. A second tranche for an additional 105 million shares is tied to a higher strike price of 777 yen, which is currently well out of reach.

Substantial Bitcoin Holdings Anchor the Narrative

Metaplanet's balance sheet is dominated by Bitcoin. The firm holds 35,102 BTC, making it Asia's largest corporate holder and the world's fourth-largest among listed companies.

In late December, the company executed its latest major purchase, adding 4,279 BTC worth approximately $451 million. This increased its total holdings to a market value exceeding $3 billion. Consequently, the future trajectory of Metaplanet's stock remains intrinsically linked to the price of Bitcoin.

Performance Context and Outlook

Even with the recent decline, the shares are still up roughly 28.6% since the start of the year. However, on a six-month view, the stock remains down by more than 60.9% from its summer 2025 highs near 1,930 yen. The upcoming financial report in early February will serve as a key indicator for determining whether the latest pullback represents a consolidation within a volatile environment or a continuation of a longer-term weakening trend.