Metaplanet’s Share Price Retreats From Critical Financing Threshold

Metaplanet JP3481200008

The Tokyo-listed shares of Metaplanet failed to maintain a breakout above a key price level last week, temporarily blocking a major mechanism for funding additional Bitcoin acquisitions. While the pullback has slowed short-term momentum, it does not negate the substantial recovery the stock has staged in recent weeks.

Trading on the Tokyo exchange, Metaplanet's stock closed Friday's session at 591 yen, marking a daily decline of 3.59%. This followed a brief surge on Thursday, when the price touched 639 yen. That intraday peak was significant as it surpassed the 637 yen threshold, which is the critical exercise price for the company's 23rd series of stock purchase warrants.

However, this breakout proved fleeting. Profit-taking activity quickly pushed the share price back below the decisive line. Sustained trading above 637 yen is required to activate the Moving-Strike-Warrant (MSW) program managed by the EVO Fund. If achieved, the fund would be able to subscribe for up to 105 million newly issued shares, with the entire proceeds earmarked for purchasing more Bitcoin.

Key structural details of the warrant program include:
- Series 23: Exercise threshold of 637 yen, enabling up to 105 million new shares
- Series 24: Activation price of 777 yen, allowing for a further 105 million shares
- Maximum Potential Dilution: Up to 210 million new shares from both series combined

For now, with the share price below 637 yen, this specific avenue for raising Bitcoin-purchasing capital remains inaccessible.

Weekly Gains Outweigh Friday's Decline

Despite ending the week on a softer note, Metaplanet's equity still posted a robust weekly advance of approximately 12%. Measured from its low point in December 2025, the rally now totals roughly 90%. This sustained upward move reflects growing market confidence in the firm's corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Trading volume spiked to 46.3 million shares on Thursday as the warrant threshold was tested, before cooling to 27.5 million shares on Friday. During the final session, the stock fluctuated between a range of 581 and 602 yen.

The mNAV Metric Guides Corporate Actions

A central gauge for evaluating Metaplanet is its market capitalization relative to its Bitcoin holdings, expressed as the multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV). This ratio has now climbed to 1.36, reaching its highest level since October 2025.

The mNAV is a crucial determinant for whether new share issuances are value-accretive or value-dilutive for existing shareholders. During the steep 80% decline from the June highs, the mNAV fell below 1.0. In response, company management halted warrant exercises to avoid raising capital at a dilutive valuation.

At the current premium to intrinsic value, the data suggests that any future warrant exercise would, in theory, be accretive to shareholder value—provided the share price remains firmly above the respective activation thresholds.

Positioning in the Global Bitcoin Ecosystem

Metaplanet's corporate treasury currently holds 35,102 Bitcoin. Based on prevailing market prices, this position is valued at approximately $3.3 billion USD. This substantial holding establishes the company's standing in several key areas:
- The largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia
- The fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder worldwide
- A significant participant in the institutional Bitcoin market

Concurrently, Metaplanet is operating a share buyback program authorized to repurchase up to 150 million shares. This program is backed by a Bitcoin-collateralized credit line and serves as a potential counterbalance to the dilutive effect of any future warrant-driven share issuance.

Awaiting Q4 Results and the Next Price Move

Market attention now turns to the forthcoming fourth-quarter financial report, scheduled for release on February 17, 2026. From the current trading level, the stock would need to appreciate by about 7.8% to reclaim the 637 yen mark and reactivate the Series 23 warrants.

Since the start of the year, Metaplanet shares have surged roughly 51%, dramatically outperforming the Nikkei 225 index, which has gained 7.5% over the same period. The upcoming quarterly figures and the market's reaction to them will be pivotal in determining whether the share price can successfully breach the critical 637-yen threshold in the near term.