Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy: A Tale of Paper Losses and Operational Gains

Metaplanet JP3481200008

The Japanese investment firm Metaplanet finds itself navigating a complex financial landscape as 2025 concludes. While its core Bitcoin income operations are exceeding expectations, a significant expansion of its digital asset holdings has resulted in substantial unrealized losses, creating a notable divergence in its financial performance that has weighed on its share price.

In a bold move during the fourth quarter of 2025, Metaplanet aggressively added to its Bitcoin treasury, purchasing 4,279 BTC at an average price of $105,412 per coin. This acquisition, costing approximately $451 million, brings the company’s total holdings to 35,102 Bitcoin. The cumulative average cost basis for the entire stash stands at $107,606 per BTC, representing a total carrying value of roughly $3.78 billion.

CEO Simon Gerovich highlighted the firm's strategic focus on accumulation, noting a 568.2% increase in Bitcoin holdings by unit count for the year, a metric that deliberately sidesteps dollar-based price fluctuations.

To fund this ongoing strategy, which targets holding 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026, the company successfully completed a capital raise. It finalized payment for the issuance of 23,610,000 MERCURY Class B preferred shares through a third-party placement.

Market Valuation Under Pressure

The financial markets reacted to the disclosure of these paper losses. At the time of the announcement, with Bitcoin trading around $88,000—well below the company's average purchase price—unrealized losses on the treasury holdings were estimated at approximately $520 million. This directly impacted the firm's modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), which declined from 1.17 to 1.03.

This was reflected in share price movements. On the Tokyo exchange, the stock closed at 405 yen, marking a daily decline of 7.95% within a trading range of 403 to 421 yen. While the shares are still up 13% for the full year 2025, they have retreated about 14% over a five-day period.

In the United States, the OTC-traded shares (MTPLF) fell 4.25% to $2.70, though they maintain a 16% gain year-to-date. The newly listed MPJPY Depository Receipt lost 4.20% to $2.74, trading nearly 6% below its launch price.

Operational Income Provides a Counter-Narrative

Contrasting the balance sheet pressures, Metaplanet's operational Bitcoin business is performing strongly. The company anticipates Q4 2025 revenue of 4.242 billion yen (about $27 million) from its Bitcoin Income Generation segment. This operation utilizes options strategies on a separate pool of Bitcoin, leaving the core treasury reserves untouched.

For the full year 2025, this income stream is projected to reach around $54 million, surpassing earlier company forecasts. The model, which mirrors approaches used by other public Bitcoin holders, is designed to create a recurring cash flow from the firm's digital asset base.

Technical Outlook and Corporate Standing

From a chart perspective, Metaplanet's stock is currently trading within a defined range. Support is seen around the 388 yen level, with resistance near 478 yen. A decisive break above 478 yen could theoretically open a path toward 534 yen, representing a potential 13% upside. Conversely, a drop below 388 yen would shift focus to the 335 yen area as the next significant level.

The company has solidified its position as a major corporate Bitcoin holder globally, now ranking fourth behind Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Tesla, and Marathon Digital. Public companies collectively hold about 1.09 million BTC, accounting for roughly 5.1% of the total supply.

Looking Ahead to 2026

The next quarterly report, scheduled for February 17, 2026, will be the first to fully reflect the expanded Bitcoin treasury strategy. Shareholders gave unanimous approval to all five management proposals at the end of 2025, providing a clear mandate to continue building toward the 100,000 BTC goal.

Metaplanet enters 2026 with its valuation facing short-term pressure, as Bitcoin trades just below $90,000 and recently around $87,000. The firm's performance remains tightly correlated to the price of Bitcoin. However, the long-term strategic focus remains unequivocally fixed on Bitcoin's role as its primary treasury reserve asset.