Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Model Is Splintering: Record Options Revenue Can’t Mask Regulatory Threats, Dilution and a 41% Stock Rout

Bitcoin options boost Metaplanet's revenue, but $725M impairment, Japan regulatory tightening, and dilution threats send stock down 41% YTD. A Strive merger may offer an escape.

Metaplanet is caught in a punishing contradiction. Its operational business is firing on all cylinders, powered by a booming Bitcoin options trade that delivered 2.54 billion yen in premiums last quarter. Yet the company’s stock is plumbing new lows — €1.31 a share, barely above a 52-week trough of €1.28 — and the market is pricing in a litany of headwinds that no amount of derivatives income can fix.

On the operational side, the first quarter looked strong. Revenue hit 3.08 billion yen, and operating profit surged 283% to 2.27 billion yen, with Bitcoin derivatives chipping in another 432 million yen. Management still targets 16 billion yen in revenue for fiscal 2026 and an operating profit of 11.4 billion yen. That growth story remains intact — on paper.

The rub comes below the operating line. A revaluation of Metaplanet’s digital asset holdings triggered a 116.36 billion yen impairment, dragging the net result to a loss of 114.49 billion yen — roughly $725 million. The company now holds 40,177 Bitcoin, acquired at an average price of around $104,000 per coin, leaving it sitting on unrealized losses of nearly half a billion dollars. Bitcoin itself delivered its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, compounding the pain.

The stock’s slide tells a stark story. Year-to-date, Metaplanet has tumbled 41.26%. Over the past seven days alone it lost 15.41%, and on a monthly basis the decline is 30.71%. The relative strength index sits at 24.6, deep in oversold territory, while the share price trades 50.91% below its 200-day moving average. That technical damage reflects more than just Bitcoin’s volatility.

Japan’s regulatory environment is tightening. The Japan Exchange Group is drafting new index guidelines that could exclude companies whose assets are more than 50% crypto from the TOPIX benchmark, a move that would cut off passive capital flows. Meanwhile, Metaplanet’s planned issuance of preferred shares — the “MARS” and “Mercury” tranches — remains blocked by local rules, starving the company of a vital funding channel.

The cash crunch is compounded by an idle share buyback. The board authorized repurchases of up to 150 million common shares — 13.13% of the total outstanding — financed by a $500 million Bitcoin-backed credit line. Yet through the end of May, not a single share had been bought back. The authorization runs until October 2026, but the lack of action signals either restraint or a deeper liquidity squeeze, depending on who you ask.

Dilution is another heavy weight. Warrants from the 27th series — 947,300 rights still outstanding — could theoretically convert into roughly 94.7 million new shares. In May only 2,700 rights were exercised, creating 270,000 new shares at 362 yen each. Until the stock rebounds, the overhang of those potential shares acts as a ceiling, deterring buyers who fear further dilution.

A potential escape hatch lies across the Pacific. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, recently floated a merger between Metaplanet and Nakamoto that would open the U.S. capital markets. Listing the blocked preferred shares in New York could inject fresh funding and sidestep Tokyo’s regulatory squeeze. The entire sector is already de-risking: rival Strategy was forced to sell 32 Bitcoin this week to cover distributions, a move Metaplanet would desperately like to avoid. A forced sale of core Bitcoin holdings would unravel the entire treasury thesis.

To shore up loyalty, Metaplanet launched an expanded shareholder program with tiers Silver, Gold, Diamond and Nakamoto — the top tier requiring at least 50,001 shares held for 24 months. Partners are sweetening the pot: Coincheck offers a Bitcoin lottery worth up to 20 million yen, Binance Japan dangles up to 20% annual returns on Bitcoin deposits, OKCoin Japan provides trading-fee rebates of up to 150,000 yen, and hardware wallet makers Blockstream and Tangem offer discounts. The program may build stickiness, but it does not rebuild market confidence.

Metaplanet remains one of the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holders, trailing only Strategy (over 762,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (roughly 43,500 BTC). Domestically, it commands about 87% of all Bitcoin held by Japanese listed companies. Yet that dominance is increasingly viewed with skepticism. The company’s ambitious targets — 100,000 Bitcoin by year’s end and 210,000 a year later — would require doubling the hoard in short order, a feat that looks all but impossible with a falling stock price and frozen capital channels.

The next test is not about hitting a Bitcoin target. It is about capital discipline. Until Metaplanet uses its buyback, resolves the warrant overhang, and finds a way around Tokyo’s regulatory barriers, the disconnect between its operating strength and its market value will only widen. For now, the options engine hums — but the rest of the machine is stalling.