Metaplanet is Now the Third-Largest Public Bitcoin Holder. Its Stock is Trading at a 28% Discount to Its Coins.

Metaplanet's Bitcoin bet falters: mNAV premium vanishes, stock drops 88%, revenue plunges. Firm pivots to acquire securities license.

The Japanese firm has built a massive cryptocurrency war chest, leapfrogging MARA Holdings to become the third-biggest corporate Bitcoin owner worldwide, behind only MicroStrategy and Twenty One Capital. Yet the very strategy that propelled that achievement is unwinding in plain sight. Shares trade at 1.13 euros — a far cry from the 9.68-euro peak — and the company’s market capitalisation now sits 28% below the value of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet, a metric known as the mNAV ratio that has collapsed to 0.72 from the three-times premium investors paid as recently as July 2025.

The engine that once generated both premium and growth is sputtering. Metaplanet’s revenue from writing secured Bitcoin options plunged 41% in the second quarter, to 1.75 billion yen, compared with more than 4.2 billion yen in the prior-year fourth quarter. The business model depends on volatility to fatten premiums, but Bitcoin has spent recent weeks drifting around the $60,000 mark, leaving little juice for option sellers. Management has shrugged off the decline, leaving its full-year guidance unchanged, but the stock’s 88% slide over the past twelve months suggests investors are less forgiving.

A breakdown in the mNAV premium has choked off the company’s primary funding mechanism. When shares traded above the value of the underlying Bitcoin, Metaplanet could issue expensive equity and buy cheap coins, creating a virtuous loop. Now that the stock sits below parity, each new share issuance dilutes existing holders. CEO Simon Gerovich has floated the idea of share buybacks to stem the damage, but no formal programme has been announced.

Instead, the firm is pursuing a radical pivot toward becoming a financial intermediary. Metaplanet plans to acquire Siiibo Securities for roughly 2.1 billion yen, a deal expected to close by June 2026. The purchase would bring a regulated securities licence, allowing the company to offer Bitcoin yield products to its 250,000 existing shareholders and to Siiibo’s client base. The ambition is to build a distribution platform targeting Japan’s vast pool of household savings — but so far the plan remains entirely on paper, with the acquisition itself not yet legally finalised.

The Bitcoin hoard itself continues to grow. The company bought another 2,823 coins at an average price of about 12.7 million yen each, lowering the portfolio’s cost base and pushing total holdings to exactly 43,000 tokens. The internal “BTC Yield” — a measure of reserve growth relative to shares outstanding — came in at 6.6% for the latest quarter. Management has set an interim target of 100,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2026, which would require acquiring roughly 57,000 more coins in the second half, and a long-range goal of 210,000 Bitcoin by end-2027.

A modest relief rally on Thursday, with the stock climbing nearly 3% from a Tuesday low of 1.04 euros, does little to alter the bleak trajectory. The market is no longer rewarding simple coin accumulation; it wants proof of a sustainable business model. Until the shares trade back above their intrinsic value and the new platform generates real revenue, Metaplanet remains a high-risk bet on financial engineering rather than a functioning enterprise.