Metaplanet Faces Regulatory Squeeze on Two Fronts as Stock Hits New Low and Bitcoin Losses Swell

Despite 283% profit surge, Metaplanet's shares hit 52-week low as preferred share issuance stalls and TOPIX exclusion risks passive selling.

Metaplanet’s share price tumbled to a fresh 52-week low of €1.22 on Friday, deepening a rout that has wiped 89% from the stock since its June 2025 peak and 44% year-to-date. The slide comes as a paradox: the Tokyo-based Bitcoin treasury company reported first-quarter operating profit surging 283%, while simultaneously its capital-raising engine has stalled under Japan’s regulatory framework and a looming index exclusion threatens to force passive selling.

The most immediate blow is the indefinite suspension of Metaplanet’s planned preferred-share issuance, internally branded “Mars” and “Mercury.” The company had hoped to follow the playbook of its U.S. analog, Strategy, by issuing two classes of non-voting preferred stock. But Japanese exchange rules require that preferred dividends be serviced from sustainable, recurring cash flows — a hard proof for a firm with only six quarters of operating history. The additional proposal of monthly dividends, an unusually rapid cadence for Japan, demanded new infrastructure for record dates. CEO Simon Gerovich confirmed the plan is frozen and said the company is exploring alternatives such as new common equity or bond issuances in the second half of 2026. The instrument would have been only the seventh listed preferred in Japan and the first perpetual — a pioneering move that now lies dormant.

Parallel to the Tokyo blockade runs a separate regulatory threat with potentially greater consequences. The Japan Exchange Group is drafting revised index rules that would exclude companies with more than 50% of total assets in cryptocurrencies from the TOPIX. The consultation period closed in early May, and a decision is pending. The market has a vivid recent reference point: when MSCI floated similar restrictions for MicroStrategy in late 2025, that stock cratered from $365 to $147 — a 60% plunge — even before the idea was abandoned in January 2026. If the TOPIX exclusion takes effect, passive funds tracking the benchmark would have no choice but to dump Metaplanet shares.

Adding to the selling pressure is a persistent dilution overhang. At the end of May, roughly 947,000 unexercised subscription rights from the company’s 27th series remained outstanding, convertible into as many as 94.7 million new shares — equivalent to 7.4% of the existing 1.28 billion shares. In May alone, only 2,700 rights were exercised, translating into a negligible 0.02% increase in the share count. Yet the mere possibility of a flood of new equity caps the stock, as investors price in further erosion of Bitcoin-per-share.

Operationally, the picture is strikingly different. First-quarter net revenue hit $19.5 million (3.08 billion yen), up 251% year-on-year, while operating profit rose to $14.4 million (2.27 billion yen). Bitcoin derivatives contributed an additional 432 million yen. Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance of 16 billion yen in revenue and 11.4 billion yen in operating profit. But the bottom line tells a different story: a net loss of 114.5 billion yen (roughly $725 million), driven by a non-cash fair-value writedown of the Bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency slumped from around $87,000 to $66,000 during the quarter.

That writedown highlights the tension in Metaplanet’s ambitious accumulation targets. The company aims to hold 100,000 BTC by end-2026 and 210,000 BTC by end-2027 — requiring roughly a doubling and then a quintupling of its current 40,177 coins. The internal BTC yield, a metric measuring Bitcoin growth per share, fell sharply to 2.8% in the first quarter from 33.0% and 129.4% in the prior two quarters. Metaplanet remains the third-largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder globally, behind Strategy (over 762,000 BTC) and Twenty One Capital (around 43,500 BTC), and commands about 87% of all Bitcoin held by Japanese listed companies.

To buttress shareholder loyalty, Metaplanet launched a four-tier loyalty program — Silver, Gold, Diamond and Nakamoto — that rewards holding periods and position size. Entry requires just 100 shares, while the top tier demands at least 50,001 shares held for 24 months. Registration closes June 30, 2026. Partners include a Bitcoin lottery via Coincheck worth 20 million yen and a 20% APY campaign on Binance Japan. Meanwhile, a share buyback program of up to 150 million common shares, financed via a Bitcoin-backed credit line, has yet to repurchase a single share since its authorization, casting doubt on management’s willingness to deploy it.

With a relative strength index of 22.2, the stock is deeply oversold. The critical catalysts ahead are the JPX’s final ruling on TOPIX eligibility and any progress on a U.S. listing of preferred shares. Without fresh capital — and before dilution and regulatory pressure accelerate — Metaplanet’s ability to fund its Bitcoin ambitions hangs in the balance.