Major Cardano Holders Accumulate Billions Amid Price Volatility

Cardano's ADA reclaims $0.29 amid major whale buying and institutional support from Grayscale. New CME futures pave the way for a potential spot ETF by 2026.

Cardano’s ADA token surged more than 11% across February 25th and 26th, reclaiming the $0.29 price level. This upward move coincided with a notable on-chain trend: significant accumulation by large-scale investors over the preceding six months, a period during which the asset’s price had fallen over 70%.

Institutional Moves and Exchange Developments

Recent days have seen several supportive developments for Cardano’s ecosystem. On February 24th, Grayscale Investments adjusted the holdings of its Smart Contract Platform Ex-Ethereum Fund, increasing Cardano’s weighting to approximately 20.2%. This adjustment solidifies ADA as the fund's third-largest position, trailing only Solana and Avalanche.

Simultaneously, trading access expanded. Binance added new ADA/USDC pairs to its Cross-Margin offerings on February 24th. The following day, Bitstamp by Robinhood enabled ADA trading for its Singapore-based users.

A Closer Look at Whale Activity

Data from analytics firm Santiment reveals a complex picture of investor behavior. Over the past half-year, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA collectively accumulated roughly 819 million tokens. At current valuations, this represents an investment of about $213 million.

This buying occurred against a backdrop of a severe downturn, with ADA falling from around $0.90 to a low of $0.26 before its recent recovery. Historically, such accumulation phases by major investors often signal the later stages of a bear market.

However, the net activity tells a more nuanced story. Reports indicate that during the same period, the largest wallets—those holding over 1 billion ADA—sold approximately 1.01 billion tokens. Smaller whale-tier addresses (holding 1 to 10 million ADA) also reduced their positions. On a net basis, selling pressure from these groups has outweighed the buying from the mid-tier cohort.

The Path Toward a Potential ETF

Market speculation regarding a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Cardano has intensified since the launch of ADA futures on the CME on February 9th. The SEC’s generic listing standards, adopted in September 2025, could significantly streamline the approval process for such a product.

A key requirement is that the CME futures must be actively traded for a minimum of six months. This sets the earliest eligibility date around August 9, 2026. Under the new framework, an application could then be approved within approximately 75 days, a much faster timeline than the 240-day review period of the old procedure.

A regulatory cloud remains, however. The SEC previously classified ADA as a security in 2023, though it subsequently withdrew related lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance in 2025.

Upcoming Network Upgrades

Cardano’s development roadmap features several imminent milestones. The launch of the Circles USDCx stablecoin, which includes enhanced privacy features, is scheduled for the end of February on the Cardano blockchain.

Founder Charles Hoskinson has announced a mainnet hard fork for March, which will coincide with the launch of Midnight—a sidechain focused on data protection. Furthermore, the Ouroboros Leios upgrade, aimed at significantly improving network scalability, is planned for later in 2026.

Market Context and Outlook

As of February 26th, ADA was trading near $0.29. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at approximately $2.33 trillion. Of Cardano’s maximum supply of 45 billion ADA, around 36 billion are currently in circulation.

The recent rally benefited from a broader market upturn, with Bitcoin recovering to $67,500 and improved risk sentiment following a speech by former President Trump on February 25th.

The upcoming hard fork and Midnight launch will be critical tests for whether the accumulation by mid-sized whales can counterbalance the selling pressure from the network's largest holders. ADA’s struggle to decisively reclaim the $0.30 level suggests that sustaining gains will require more than just short-term momentum buying.