Lufthansa Faces a Pivotal May: Fleet Cuts, Labor Strife, and a Shareholder Showdown

Lufthansa stock nears oversold levels as Q1 results, a dividend vote, and board changes loom in May, while fleet cuts and labor tensions persist.

Lufthansa investors are bracing for a critical stretch in May, with two major events set to test the airline’s strategy amid a deepening cost crisis. The stock has already shed roughly 15% year-to-date, trading near €7.24 — a far cry from its 52-week high of €9.50 set in February. The relative strength index, at around 12, points to a deeply oversold condition, but whether that signals a turning point depends heavily on the numbers due in the coming weeks.

Q1 Earnings and a Dividend Decision

On May 6, the group will release its first-quarter results for 2026. The full-year 2025 figures showed revenue of €39.6 billion and adjusted EBIT of €2.0 billion, but the first three months of this year have been battered by strike waves and surging energy costs. Management has hedged 77% of expected fuel needs for 2026 through price-safeguarding contracts, which should cushion some of the blow, but analysts remain cautious.

Six days later, on May 12, Lufthansa holds its 73rd annual general meeting — returning to an in-person format at Frankfurt’s Messe after last year’s virtual gathering. Shareholders will vote on a dividend of €0.33 per share, a 10% increase from the prior year. That payout, totaling roughly €396 million, represents 30% of 2025 group earnings, well within the company’s target distribution range of 20% to 40%. Investors wishing to cast their ballots must register by May 5.

Boardroom Shake-Up

The AGM also features a reshuffle of the supervisory board. Dr. Johannes Teyssen is slated to take over as chairman. Wolfgang Nickl, CFO of Bayer AG, is proposed for a three-year term ending in 2029, while Carsten Knobel, CEO of Henkel, steps down after eight years on the board.

Fleet Overhaul Gathers Pace

Behind the scenes, Lufthansa is aggressively trimming its fleet to combat cost pressures and uncertain fuel supplies. The subsidiary Cityline has already grounded 27 Canadair CRJ regional jets, citing high operating expenses and elevated kerosene prices. Those routes will be transferred to the newly created Lufthansa City Airlines — a move that has ignited fresh labor tensions.

On the long-haul side, four Airbus A340-600s will leave the fleet in October, followed by two Boeing 747-400s in the winter. The group plans to phase out the entire 747 fleet by 2027. The logic is straightforward: four-engine aircraft burn significantly more fuel than modern twin-engine models, and with geopolitical instability threatening kerosene supplies, every drop counts.

Labor Peace at City Airlines, but Not at the Core

Just ahead of these milestones, Lufthansa secured a tentative truce at City Airlines. The carrier and the ver.di union agreed on a collective wage deal that will lift salaries for captains, co-pilots, and cabin crew by 20% to 35% in three steps, retroactive to April 1, 2026, and valid for three years.

But the calm does not extend to the core Lufthansa brand. Conflicts with the pilots’ union Cockpit and the cabin crew union UFO remain unresolved, leaving a significant open cost risk. The unions view City Airlines as a deliberate attempt to bypass existing wage structures, and the standoff shows no signs of easing.

Regulatory Headwinds and Political Pushback

The company is also navigating a hostile political environment. Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider has rejected industry calls for a fuel tax rebate or a suspension of emissions trading, telling Lufthansa there is “plenty of room for improvement” in its use of sustainable fuels.

Adding to the uncertainty, an EU court on April 23 annulled the approval of the 2020 coronavirus state aid package. That ruling creates fresh regulatory ambiguity at a time when the airline can least afford it.

What to Watch

Analysts, on balance, rate the stock a “hold,” with a consensus price target of €8.40. The May 6 quarterly report will be the first real test of whether cost-cutting and fleet rationalization are delivering results. A week later, management is expected to provide concrete profitability figures for City Airlines at the AGM — and to explain whether the restructuring is actually working. For now, the outlook hinges on how resilient first-quarter operating earnings prove to be.