LPKF Laser Under Siege: Hedge Funds Go Short While LIDE Orders Hold the Key

LPKF Laser stock down 4.7%, still up 237% YTD. Short positions rise as Q1 revenue slump deepens; LIDE production order deadline in June could trigger rally.

The Hannover-based laser specialist finds itself at a critical juncture. Its stock closed Friday at €20.30, down 4.69% on the day and a staggering 32.33% below the all-time high of €30.00 hit in late May. Yet the year-to-date gain still stands at an eye-popping 237.77% — a reminder of how far the shares have come, and how fast they have fallen.

Two hedge funds are now betting against the company. Voleon Capital Management has lifted its net short position to 2.13%, up from 1.70% in early April. Marshall Wace also holds a disclosed short position. Their skepticism finds support in the first-quarter numbers: revenue slumped 32% year-on-year to €17.1 million, and EBIT swung to a loss of €6.9 million. The order book tells a different story, however. Incoming orders climbed to €24.1 million, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to 1.4 — meaning demand is comfortably outpacing current sales. The big question is whether that demand will translate into actual production orders.

The LIDE countdown is on. CEO Klaus Fiedler promised the first production orders for the company’s LIDE glass-processing technology would arrive in the second quarter of 2026. That window closes at the end of June, giving management just three weeks to deliver. The timing is not entirely in LPKF’s hands; customers must qualify downstream process steps themselves. Critically, LPKF has excluded all LIDE-related revenue from its full-year guidance, which calls for sales of €105 million to €120 million and an adjusted EBIT margin between minus 3.0% and plus 4.5%. Any confirmed series order would therefore represent pure upside — and a direct challenge to the short sellers.

Sector tailwinds add to the case. Nvidia is investing $500 million in Corning, betting heavily on glass-based co-packaged optics — precisely the interface where LPKF’s technology fits. That does not replace serial revenue, but it reinforces the strategic relevance of the company’s approach.

On the operational front, the “North Star” restructuring program continues to weigh. Production in Suhl has been consolidated, the Fürth site closed, and a syndicated loan extended until 2028. Management targets a sustainable double-digit EBIT margin by that year, but restructuring costs will eat up roughly three to four percentage points of revenue in 2026. Under the credit terms, no dividends will be paid at least through 2029.

The calendar is dense. On June 18, the company appears at the SdK investor forum. Four days later, it joins the SDAX — a move that should boost institutional visibility. On June 24, LPKF holds a “Depaneling Day” to showcase technological innovations. Then on July 23, the half-year report will provide the next hard data point — and could become a flashpoint if LIDE orders have not materialized.

Chart watchers have their eye on the 50-day moving average at €17.16 as the next support level. A breach there would signal deeper trouble. But if a LIDE order does land before June ends, the short sellers would face heavy covering pressure. With volatility at 141.32%, the next three weeks promise to be anything but quiet.