LPKF Laser: The War Between Short Sellers and Technology Optimists Intensifies

LPKF Laser's 314% YTD surge faces record short interest amid weak fundamentals, but LIDE tech and order growth fuel squeeze risk.

The 314% year-to-date surge in LPKF Laser's stock — which at its peak hit 322% — has created a battlefield. Short sellers are piling on record bearish positions even as the company's cutting-edge LIDE technology inches toward commercial production. The result is extreme volatility that has wiped out more than 18% of the share price in two sessions.

Short interest keeps climbing
Voleon Capital Management raised its net short position to 2.13% of outstanding shares on May 26, up from 2.02% just four days earlier. The buildup began in late April when the hedge fund first crossed the 0.5% reporting threshold and has since more than quadrupled. Marshall Wace is also short on the laser specialist, adding to the bearish pressure. The combined short interest now stands at a level rarely seen for a German small-cap stock.

Rollercoaster price action
After touching a five-year high of €29.20 on May 24, the shares suffered an 8.3% single-day slide to €25.40 on Wednesday. The selling accelerated further, with the stock plunging more than 10% to €24.90 — a cumulative drop of roughly 15% from the peak in under a week. Despite the retreat, the equity still trades 66% above its 50-day moving average, a stretched metric that short sellers interpret as overheating but that also raises the specter of a short squeeze.

Operational picture still in the red
The bearish thesis rests on deteriorating fundamentals. First-quarter revenue fell 32.4% year-on-year to €17.1 million, dragged down by persistent weakness in the solar segment. EBIT swung deeper into the red, from a loss of €3.9 million to a loss of €6.9 million. Free cash flow consumed another €7.6 million. Management nevertheless reaffirmed its full-year guidance of €105 million to €120 million in revenue and an EBIT margin between minus 3.0% and plus 4.5%, excluding potential large orders from advanced semiconductor packaging.

Order intake tells a different story
The bullish camp points to order intake, which rose 18% to €24.1 million in the first quarter, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to 1.4. LPKF's LIDE technology for precision glass processing is being tested by multiple chip industry customers, and the AI-driven demand for more compact chip packages is real. CEO Klaus Fiedler put his own money on the line, buying shares worth around €42,000 at €21.00 each on May 20 — well below the current price.

Restructuring and AGM loom
The "North Star" restructuring program is on track: production consolidated in Suhl, the Fürth site closed, and a syndicated loan agreement extended until 2028. LPKF expects exceptional restructuring costs of 3% to 4% of 2026 revenue. Shareholders will gather in Hanover on June 4 for the annual general meeting, with the registration deadline expiring on May 28. The agenda includes the election of Dr. Arne Schneider to the supervisory board, replacing Dr. Dirk Michael Rothweiler. No dividend will be paid; the net profit of €7.6 million will be carried forward.

Technical extremes and squeeze risk
The relative strength index has sunk to 25.7, signaling oversold conditions. Shares are still 365% above the 52-week low of €5.35, a fact that underscores both the magnitude of the rally and its fragility. With short sellers adding to positions near the highs, any positive catalyst — such as a confirmed LIDE production order — could force rapid covering. The half-year report in July will provide the next major test of whether order intake is translating into revenue, and which side of this bet is right.