LPKF Laser: The €26 Stock That Has Priced in a Revolution That Won’t Materialise Until 2029

LPKF shares soar 336% on semiconductor glass substrate promise, yet Q1 revenue drops and operating losses widen. CEO promises Q2 production orders as proof.

Investors have piled into LPKF Laser & Electronics with a fervour that borders on the irrational. Since the start of the year, the shares have surged by roughly 336%, closing Friday at €26.20 — a fresh 52-week high and a weekly gain of around 45%. The stock now trades more than 230% above its 200-day moving average of €7.76.

The catalyst for this extraordinary rally is the company’s LIDE technology, which processes glass substrates for advanced semiconductor packaging. LPKF claims a technical lead of roughly a decade in this niche, and the market is betting big that these glass components will be crucial for the next generation of chips.

Yet the euphoria at the bourse stands in stark contrast to the numbers on the ground. In the first quarter, revenue shrank to €17.1 million from €25.3 million a year earlier, dragged down by a weak solar business. Operating losses deepened to minus €6.9 million. For the full year, management forecasts sales of between €105 million and €120 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin of minus 3.0% to minus 4.5%. Crucially, those projections do not yet include any potential volume orders from the semiconductor-packaging segment.

The Proof Will Come in Q2 — Or Not at All

CEO Klaus Fiedler has promised that first production orders from the semiconductor industry will land in the current quarter. That is the make-or-break moment for the stock. Without signed contracts, the rally loses its narrative anchor. The order-to-sales ratio stood at a healthy 1.4 in Q1, but converting that pipeline into binding revenue is the next hurdle.

Analysts at Montega have set a price target of €15.00 — far below the current market price — and maintain a “Hold” rating. They acknowledge that production orders would signal a ramp-up starting in 2027, but they see only limited near-term revenue impact. The high-volume phase, they note, is unlikely to begin before 2029.

Cost-Cutting and a Board Shuffle

Behind the scenes, LPKF is tightening its belt. Under a transformation programme, the company has successfully moved production of its welding systems from Fürth to Suhl. That should help trim costs as it waits for the LIDE business to scale.

The next major event on the calendar is the annual general meeting on 4 June in Hanover. No dividend will be paid; the retained profit of roughly €7.6 million will be carried forward. Supervisory board member Dr Dirk Michael Rothweiler is stepping down, with Dr Arne Schneider — currently CEO of Elmos Semiconductor SE — proposed as his successor.

Two weeks later, on 18 June, Fiedler is due to present the long-term strategy at an investor forum. Shareholders will be pressing for concrete details on the LIDE ramp-up timeline and the path to a sustainable double-digit EBIT margin, which management has targeted for 2028.

A Valuation That Leaves No Room for Error

At €26.20, the stock is discounting a future that has not yet arrived. The market is effectively assuming that LIDE production orders will be signed within weeks, that the technology will scale smoothly, and that the revenue will flow before the decade is out. Any delay or disappointment could trigger a sharp correction.

The 4 June AGM will be the first real test. If management delivers the promised contracts, the rally may have further to run. If not, the gap between hope and reality will become impossible to ignore.