LPKF Laser’s Glass Substrate Ambitions Meet a Wall of Short Bets

Hedge fund Voleon raises short bet to 2.13% as LPKF's revenue falls 32% and EBIT loss deepens, while order intake climbs and LIDE glass tech is showcased at global fairs.

The gap between LPKF Laser’s technological promise and its operational reality is widening by the day. While the company takes its LIDE glass-processing technology on a global roadshow, hedge fund Voleon Capital Management has quietly raised its short bet against the stock to 2.13% of shares outstanding, up from 1.70% at the end of April. The move comes as the share price tumbled 5.2% on Thursday to €23.70, paring some of the year’s staggering 294% rally from a December low of €5.35.

Nevertheless, the stage in Wuxi could hardly be better suited to LPKF’s narrative. At the iTGV Forum on 28-29 May, the company is demonstrating NEXAR direct-write lithography, LIDE-based glass processing, through-glass via (TGV) technology, and three-dimensional optical waveguides at booth G68. Technical experts from the German headquarters are on hand to discuss co-packaged optics substrate architectures — a market that is gaining traction as glass substrates offer superior thermal performance and optical transparency for AI computing hardware. This week LPKF is also exhibiting at the SPEXA space expo in Tokyo.

The trade fair circuit provides a perfect backdrop for LPKF’s bull case, but concrete commercial validation remains elusive. First-quarter figures reveal the tension clearly: revenue fell 32% year-on-year to €17.1 million, held back by a weak solar segment, while EBIT sank to a loss of €6.9 million, compared with a loss of €3.9 million a year earlier. On the adjusted basis, the loss stood at €5.7 million. Restructuring costs linked to the North Star transformation programme are expected to consume an unusually high 3%–4% of full-year revenue.

On the positive side, order intake climbed to €24.1 million from €20.5 million, yielding a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4 — a signal that new business is outstripping current revenues. Management reports “progress” in the advanced packaging segment, although no volume orders have been announced. For the full year 2026, LPKF targets revenue of €105 million to €120 million and a reported EBIT margin ranging from minus 3.0% to plus 4.5%. The guidance explicitly excludes any upside from potential large-scale advanced packaging contracts.

That cautious posture has not deterred short sellers. In addition to Voleon, Marshall Wace also maintains a net short position in the register. The short thesis is not necessarily a bet against the technology itself — LIDE remains a patented, differentiated process for precision glass etching used in semiconductor packaging — but rather a wager that expectations have far outpaced the pace of execution. The stock’s relative strength index of 25.5 on a daily basis suggests an oversold condition, but the rally from the deep December trough makes many investors nervous.

For LPKF, the coming weeks offer a series of proof points. The annual general meeting is scheduled for 4 June, and CEO Klaus Fiedler will speak at the SdK investor forum on 18 June. The half-year report is due on 23 July. Until then, the market’s question is simple: will LPKF convert its trade-show buzz into binding customer contracts, or will the short sellers’ patience pay off first?