LPKF Laser: Restructuring Meets Rally as All Eyes Turn to Advanced Packaging

Despite a 32% revenue drop, LPKF Laser's order book swells 18% and advanced packaging LIDE technology fuels a 319% stock surge, attracting short sellers.

The warring narratives inside LPKF Laser’s first-quarter report are hard to reconcile. Revenue slid by roughly 32% to €17.1 million, and the operating loss deepened to €6.9 million. Yet the company’s order intake jumped 18% year-on-year to €24.1 million, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to a healthy 1.4. That gap between what the business is delivering today and what customers are promising for tomorrow has sent the shares on a dizzying 319% year-to-date climb — and attracted a growing pack of short sellers betting the rally has overshot.

Much of the revenue decline traces back to the solar segment, which remains a drag. Management has already flagged a weak year for that business, though it sees longer-term potential in the shift toward perovskite cell manufacturing. That technology, however, is not expected to contribute meaningfully to current earnings. The brighter spots are Development and Electronics, where orders have picked up thanks to delayed investment decisions following the U.S. government shutdown, as well as demand from research, defense, and precision laser cutting for printed circuit boards.

The restructuring program, dubbed North Star, is starting to show early results. LPKF closed its plastics-welding system production in Fürth and transferred the work to Suhl, where the first assembled systems are already shipping. The company expects restructuring costs to come in at around 3% to 4% of revenue for the full year. For 2026 as a whole, the board is holding to its guidance of between €105 million and €120 million in group revenue, with a projected EBIT margin that could range from slightly negative to clearly positive. Importantly, any potential volume orders from the advanced semiconductor packaging segment are not factored into that outlook.

That advanced packaging opportunity — specifically LPKF’s LIDE technology for precision glass processing — has become the primary catalyst for the stock’s extreme re-rating. Glass is gaining traction among chipmakers as a substrate for next-generation packaging, and the company says it is in advanced discussions with several customers about first production systems. Montega recently lifted its price target on the shares from €9 to €15, citing a more tangible path to revenue from that business. From 2028 onward, the broker sees the possibility of group sales exceeding €200 million and EBIT margins above 15%. But Montega also cautioned that at the current share price, that optimistic scenario is already more than priced in.

That caution is mirrored by rising short interest. Under EU rules, net short positions above 0.5% of equity must be disclosed, and the increased activity from short sellers signals that a vocal part of the market considers the valuation stretched. The stock closed at €25.20 on Wednesday, a level that leaves it trading more than 214% above its 200-day moving average. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at a blistering 139%. The share hit a 52-week low of €5.35 back in December, meaning the current price represents a more than four-fold gain from that trough.

The next key dates will test whether the narrative holds. On June 4, the annual general meeting takes place in Hannover, where the supervisory board is set to be refreshed: Dr. Arne Schneider of Elmos Semiconductor is proposed to replace Dr. Dirk Michael Rothweiler. Two weeks later, on June 18, CEO Klaus Fiedler will present the long-term strategy at an investor forum. By then, the market will be looking for concrete evidence that the LIDE technology can deliver the orders that would justify the rally — or that the short sellers’ skepticism is well founded.