LPKF Laser: Oversold RSI and Insider Buy Set the Stage for Contentious AGM

LPKF stock rally shows technical strain with oversold RSI 25.7. Q1 revenue fell 32% to €17.1M, EBIT loss €6.9M. LIDE tech orders promising, but boardroom battle and high valuation (€653M) raise caution.

The rally that has lifted LPKF shares more than 360% since January is showing technical strain. After hitting a 52-week high of €29.20, the stock slipped back to around €27.80, leaving the relative strength index at 25.7 – firmly in oversold territory. The correction of roughly 5% from yesterday’s peak signals that even a fourfold gain cannot paper over the operational cracks beneath the surface.

First-quarter results underscore the disconnect. Revenue tumbled to €17.1 million, a 32% decline from the €25.3 million reported a year earlier, as weak solar demand weighed heavily. The bottom line swung to an EBIT loss of €6.9 million. Yet the order book tells a more encouraging story: incoming orders reached €24.1 million, producing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4. For every euro of revenue the company booked, it secured €1.40 in new business, driven largely by traction in semiconductor and advanced packaging applications.

That order momentum is heavily tied to the company’s LIDE glass-structuring technology, which is being trialled by multiple chipmakers. A first capacity expansion order landed during the quarter, feeding hopes that volume production deals are within reach. Management set a full-year revenue target of €105 million to €120 million, a range that implies a sharp acceleration from the first quarter’s run-rate but still leaves the company at best breaking even on an operating basis.

Against that backdrop, CEO Dr. Klaus Fiedler bought shares on May 19 at €21 apiece – a clear vote of confidence from an insider who has seen the stock climb more than 400% from its December trough. The purchase came midway through what amounted to a 38% pullback from the interim high, suggesting the CEO sees current levels as an entry point worth backing.

But the insider’s conviction is being tested by a looming boardroom battle. A group of dissident shareholders has filed countermotions targeting the “North Star” restructuring programme that Fiedler has championed. The programme aims to streamline costs and shore up long-term profitability, but the activists argue the strategy is too ambitious given the fragile operational state. The showdown is set for the annual general meeting on June 4 in Hanover, with voting registration closing on May 28. A defeat for management could inject leadership uncertainty just as the LIDE technology negotiations are building toward potential production commitments.

Montega has responded with a “Hold” rating, cautioning that the market capitalisation of roughly €653 million – about 6.5 times the upper end of the revenue guidance – leaves little room for error. For a company that may barely turn a profit this year, the valuation hinges entirely on the successful commercialisation of LIDE. Analyst expectations are sky-high, but the proof will need to come in hard numbers rather than order intake alone.

Technically, the oversold RSI reading offers a short-term counterargument to the bearish narrative. Corrections after a 360% surge are normal, and the insider purchase adds a floor near the €21 level. The real test, however, arrives on June 4. If the AGM delivers a clear mandate for the North Star plan and the LIDE pipeline converts into volume contracts, the stock could resume its ascent. If the activists prevail, the rally may lose its most important protagonist – and its narrative coherence – just as the semiconductor industry is watching most closely.