LPKF Laser: A 246% Rally Built on Glass, While the Core Business Melts Away

LPKF Laser & Electronics shares hit a 5-year high as investors bet on LIDE semiconductor packaging, despite a 32% Q1 revenue drop and ongoing losses.

The stock of LPKF Laser & Electronics has more than quadrupled in under five months, closing Friday at €26.20 — a fresh 52-week high and its best level in five years. The 9.62% single-day gain that pushed it there came despite a first-quarter revenue collapse of roughly 32% to €17.1 million, from €25.3 million a year earlier. The disconnect between market price and operating reality has rarely been starker.

The Numbers That Don't Add Up — Yet

LPKF's fiscal 2025 ended with a net loss of €14.3 million on sales of €115 million. The first quarter of 2026 brought an EBIT loss of €6.9 million, driven primarily by the persistent slump in the Chinese solar business. For the full year, management is guiding for revenue between €105 million and €120 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin of minus 3.0% to minus 4.5%. Those figures exclude any potential volume orders from semiconductor packaging — the very business that has investors piling in.

What gives bulls confidence are three data points from the first quarter. Order intake of €24.1 million comfortably exceeded revenue, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to 1.4 — a signal that demand is accelerating even if sales have yet to catch up. The transformation programme "North Star" is also showing early results, with cost savings partially offsetting the operating loss. LPKF has moved production of its plastic welding systems from Fürth to Suhl, targeting a double-digit operating margin by 2028.

LIDE: The Technology That's Priced for 2029

The engine of this rally is LIDE — Laser Induced Deep Etching — a glass-processing technology for advanced semiconductor packaging. Most major players in the chip market are already using it in development and qualification. But the revenue timeline is punishingly long. LPKF expects its first production orders in the second quarter of 2026. The ramp-up at chip manufacturers is seen as realistic no earlier than 2027. High-volume production? That starts in 2029. Until then, LIDE contributes virtually nothing to the top line.

CEO Klaus Fiedler is scheduled to present details of the long-term strategy at an investor forum on June 18. Shareholders will be pressing for concrete timelines on the LIDE ramp-up — the single factor that justifies the current valuation.

Board Changes and a Dividend-Free AGM

LPKF's annual general meeting is set for June 4 at the Hotel Wienecke XI in Hanover. The company plans to carry forward its retained earnings of roughly €7.6 million — no dividend is on the table. A board change is also on the agenda: Dr. Dirk Michael Rothweiler is stepping down, with Dr. Arne Schneider, CEO of Elmos Semiconductor SE, proposed as his successor. Schneider's term would run until 2029, and his semiconductor industry experience aligns closely with LPKF's strategic direction.

Valuation: Hope Priced In, Risk Ignored

Analysts see a plausible path to group revenue above €200 million and EBIT margins exceeding 15% by 2028. But even in the most optimistic scenario, they concede that the potential already appears more than fully priced at current levels. The stock's 30-day performance stands at nearly 246%, while the relative strength index sits at 51.7 — technically neutral, but hardly a sign of exhaustion.

The stock now trades roughly 238% above its 200-day moving average. Whether it can hold those levels depends almost entirely on whether LPKF can convert its LIDE development pipeline into actual production orders in the second quarter. Until then, the market is betting on a revolution that won't deliver a single euro of meaningful revenue for years.